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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Nov 30, 2009
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Nov 9713.00 10496.00 9679.00 10345.00 82% 45 28 26 93% 10496.00 11041.68 10345.00
#TRAN Higher Nov 3613.30 4059.90 3546.50 3937.90 76% 39 27 23 85% 4059.90 4398.39 3937.90
#OEX Higher Nov 482.30 517.90 479.00 510.75 82% 26 17 17 100% 517.90 543.56 510.75
#NDX Higher Nov 1667.10 1814.30 1652.40 1767.40 71% 23 14 14 100% 1814.30 1987.55 1767.40
#RUT Higher Nov 562.75 605.45 553.30 579.75 51% 30 19 18 95% 605.45 641.48 579.75
#MID Higher Nov 659.15 713.75 651.80 684.75 53% 28 18 17 94% 713.75 750.58 684.75
#VLE Higher Nov 2035.30 2195.50 2005.40 2111.40 56% 26 17 17 100% 2195.50 2305.22 2111.40
#SP Higher Nov 1036.20 1113.70 1029.40 1095.65 79% 45 29 26 90% 1113.70 1172.69 1095.65
SPH0 Higher Nov 1028.00 1106.30 1021.00 1089.90 81% 27 18 18 100% 1106.30 1157.58 1089.90
NDH0 Higher Nov 1663.50 1806.30 1663.00 1765.00 71% 13 10 10 100% 1806.30 1959.87 1765.00
USH0 Higher Nov 119~16 123~00 116~16 122~21 95% 32 24 21 88% 123~00 127~18 122~21
TYH0 Higher Nov 117~075 120~150 116~065 119~290 87% 27 15 15 100% 120~150 123~167 119~290
EDH0 Higher Nov 99.495 99.680 99.475 99.615 68% 27 13 11 85% 99.680 100.486 99.615
EDM0 Higher Nov 99.205 99.535 99.165 99.475 84% 27 14 13 93% 99.535 100.311 99.475
JYH0 Lower Nov 111.21 117.89 0.01 0.01 0% 33 18 16 89% 0.01 0.01 0.01
GCJ0 Higher Nov 1042.5 1197.5 1045.0 1183.6 91% 34 17 15 88% 1197.5 1263.7 1183.6
SIK0 Higher Nov 1630.1 1894.5 1635.5 1854.5 85% 45 19 16 84% 1894.5 2184.1 1854.5
PAH0 Higher Nov 324.30 379.95 320.75 366.20 77% 31 15 13 87% 379.95 443.75 366.20
HOH0 Lower Nov 207.81 217.92 2.07 2.10 0% 30 18 18 100% 2.07 1.84 2.10
HOJ0 Lower Nov 208.30 218.50 2.07 2.12 0% 29 18 18 100% 2.07 1.83 2.12
NGH0 Lower Nov 5.425 5.477 4.696 4.989 38% 19 14 12 86% 4.696 3.825 4.989
NGJ0 Lower Nov 5.417 5.450 4.738 5.029 41% 19 14 12 86% 4.738 4.029 5.029
LEJ0 Higher Nov 66.800 71.135 65.600 70.550 89% 40 27 23 85% 71.135 75.601 70.550
PBG0 Lower Nov 89.300 89.730 83.200 86.050 44% 44 17 15 88% 83.200 73.393 86.050
KCH0 Higher Nov 138.55 146.85 133.05 142.00 65% 36 19 16 84% 146.85 166.95 142.00
LBH0 Higher Nov 227.0 265.5 222.3 265.5 100% 36 26 22 85% 265.5 290.8 265.5


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 9713.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 10345.00(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 9679.00(Month Low) to 10496.00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in November than October in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #DJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 10496.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 11041.68(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 3613.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 3937.90(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 3546.50(Month Low) to 4059.90(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #TRAN went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 4059.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 4398.39(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 482.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 510.75(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 479.00(Month Low) to 517.90(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #OEX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 517.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 543.56(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1667.10(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1767.40(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 1652.40(Month Low) to 1814.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #NDX went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1814.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 1987.55(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 562.75(Prev Close), the market ended November at 579.75(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 553.30(Month Low) to 605.45(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #RUT went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 605.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 641.48(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 659.15(Prev Close), the market ended November at 684.75(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 651.80(Month Low) to 713.75(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #MID went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 713.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 750.58(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 2035.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2111.40(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 2005.40(Month Low) to 2195.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #VLE went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2195.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 2305.22(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1036.20(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1095.65(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 1029.40(Month Low) to 1113.70(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in November than October in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #SP went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1113.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1172.69(Average Objective).

March S & P 500(CME)
The SPH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1028.00(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1089.90(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1021.00(Month Low) to 1106.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SPH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1106.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1157.58(Average Objective).

March NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1663.50(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1765.00(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 1663.00(Month Low) to 1806.30(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 13 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NDH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 1806.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 1959.87(Average Objective).

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 119~16(Prev Close), the market ended November at 122~21(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 116~16(Month Low) to 123~00(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, USH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 123~00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 127~18(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 117~075(Prev Close), the market ended November at 119~290(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 116~065(Month Low) to 120~150(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, TYH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 120~150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 123~167(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 99.495(Prev Close), the market ended November at 99.615(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 99.475(Month Low) to 99.680(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 100.486(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 99.205(Prev Close), the market ended November at 99.475(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 99.165(Month Low) to 99.535(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, EDM went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.535(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 100.311(Average Objective).

March Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 111.21(Prev Close), the market ended November at 0.01(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 0.01(Month Low) to 117.89(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, JYH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 0.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 0.01(Average Objective).

April Gold(CMX)
The GCJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1042.5(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1183.6(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1045.0(Month Low) to 1197.5(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, GCJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should exceed 1197.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 1263.7(Average Objective).

May Silver(CMX)
The SIK0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 1630.1(Prev Close), the market ended November at 1854.5(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 1635.5(Month Low) to 1894.5(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Silver(CMX) also closed higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SIK went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIK should exceed 1894.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2184.1(Average Objective).

March Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 324.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 366.20(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 320.75(Month Low) to 379.95(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in November than October in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, PAH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 379.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 443.75(Average Objective).

March Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 207.81(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2.10(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 2.07(Month Low) to 217.92(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 2.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1.84(Average Objective).

April Heating Oil(NYM)
The HOJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 208.30(Prev Close), the market ended November at 2.12(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 2.07(Month Low) to 218.50(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 2.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1.83(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 5.425(Prev Close), the market ended November at 4.989(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 4.696(Month Low) to 5.477(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGH went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 4.696(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 3.825(Average Objective).

April Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGJ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 5.417(Prev Close), the market ended November at 5.029(Month Close), that being 41%(Pct Range) off of 4.738(Month Low) to 5.450(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in November than October in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGJ went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 4.738(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 4.029(Average Objective).

April Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEJ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 66.800(Prev Close), the market ended November at 70.550(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 65.600(Month Low) to 71.135(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LEJ went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEJ should exceed 71.135(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 75.601(Average Objective).

February Pork Bellies(CME)
The PBG0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 89.300(Prev Close), the market ended November at 86.050(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 83.200(Month Low) to 89.730(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Pork Bellies(CME) also closed lower in November than October in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, PBG went on to penetrate the November low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PBG should penetrate 83.200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 73.393(Average Objective).

March Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 138.55(Prev Close), the market ended November at 142.00(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 133.05(Month Low) to 146.85(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in November than October in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KCH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should exceed 146.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 166.95(Average Objective).

March Lumber(CME)
The LBH0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for November(Month). Compared to October's 227.0(Prev Close), the market ended November at 265.5(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 222.3(Month Low) to 265.5(Month High).

In comparing the October/November closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in November than October in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LBH went on to exceed the November high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 265.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of February. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 290.8(Average Objective).