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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Dec 31, 2009 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
19 |
20 |
21 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
33 |
| Closed Higher |
7 |
8 |
8 |
15 |
9 |
17 |
14 |
15 |
18 |
27 |
17 |
| Exceeded High |
4 |
6 |
7 |
12 |
7 |
15 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
20 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
57% |
75% |
88% |
80% |
78% |
88% |
71% |
87% |
89% |
74% |
41% |
| Avg Max Increase |
17.06% |
9.69% |
11.51% |
11.18% |
13.23% |
14.01% |
13.70% |
22.72% |
28.04% |
19.89% |
9.42% |
| Max Increase |
34.24% |
18.37% |
27.79% |
32.84% |
43.03% |
35.66% |
32.67% |
86.19% |
85.89% |
72.27% |
26.13% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
21 |
14 |
19 |
17 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
20 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-3.53% |
-3.40% |
-0.53% |
-3.91% |
-0.47% |
-1.69% |
-1.43% |
-4.10% |
-1.93% |
-2.71% |
-4.39% |
| Max Decline |
-6.36% |
-11.93% |
-4.12% |
-9.29% |
-4.50% |
-5.66% |
-4.67% |
-12.72% |
-7.57% |
-9.85% |
-8.11% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
16 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
4 |
10 |
3 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
3 |
| 2010 Contract Condition |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Not Yet |
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Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
| Tested Years |
19 |
20 |
21 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
30 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
33 |
| Closed Lower |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
19 |
12 |
16 |
16 |
14 |
5 |
16 |
| Penetrated Low |
10 |
8 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
9 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
2 |
8 |
| Scenario Percentage |
83% |
67% |
85% |
92% |
74% |
75% |
75% |
63% |
57% |
40% |
50% |
| Avg Max Decline |
10.59% |
8.41% |
7.81% |
12.62% |
10.75% |
13.55% |
13.38% |
12.31% |
9.25% |
4.42% |
20.15% |
| Max Decline |
23.01% |
18.71% |
19.55% |
48.57% |
45.76% |
22.13% |
27.97% |
44.17% |
29.35% |
4.72% |
60.83% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
15 |
14 |
13 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
13 |
20 |
3 |
8 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.26% |
-1.90% |
-0.91% |
-1.34% |
-2.10% |
-3.50% |
-5.08% |
-1.15% |
-5.63% |
-2.87% |
-5.66% |
| Max Increase |
-6.65% |
-8.34% |
-3.21% |
-11.96% |
-12.56% |
-7.26% |
-18.35% |
-5.24% |
-14.46% |
-4.79% |
-11.79% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
8 |
9 |
4 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
11 |
3 |
11 |
6 |
12 |
| 2010 Contract Condition |
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| Action |
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| High |
200.00 |
200.00 |
255.60 |
267.30 |
294.75 |
306.70 |
342.90 |
379.95 |
410.00 |
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|
| Low |
200.00 |
200.00 |
200.00 |
236.70 |
269.00 |
286.10 |
293.00 |
320.75 |
346.00 |
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| Close/Last |
200.00 |
200.00 |
253.55 |
267.30 |
294.75 |
300.20 |
324.30 |
366.20 |
408.85 |
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