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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Sep 10, 2010 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
| Closed Higher |
17 |
10 |
17 |
17 |
24 |
14 |
18 |
17 |
15 |
17 |
12 |
| Exceeded High |
12 |
7 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
11 |
16 |
15 |
10 |
11 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
71% |
70% |
76% |
82% |
67% |
79% |
89% |
88% |
67% |
65% |
58% |
| Avg Max Increase |
6.50% |
5.71% |
12.56% |
12.63% |
9.57% |
8.33% |
11.56% |
12.28% |
6.08% |
4.06% |
5.84% |
| Max Increase |
26.63% |
13.22% |
41.74% |
36.12% |
22.65% |
17.89% |
102.90% |
60.45% |
11.41% |
6.98% |
14.47% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
13 |
16 |
17 |
21 |
16 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.20% |
-0.92% |
-1.90% |
-0.63% |
-1.87% |
-1.37% |
-2.38% |
-1.83% |
-2.60% |
-1.37% |
-0.84% |
| Max Decline |
-4.91% |
-4.21% |
-4.29% |
-3.49% |
-6.30% |
-6.01% |
-9.36% |
-9.23% |
-7.12% |
-3.05% |
-1.85% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
7 |
13 |
8 |
3 |
9 |
2 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
5 |
| 2010 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
| Action |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
| Tested Years |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
| Closed Lower |
18 |
25 |
18 |
18 |
11 |
21 |
17 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
24 |
| Penetrated Low |
16 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
7 |
16 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
21 |
| Scenario Percentage |
89% |
56% |
78% |
67% |
64% |
76% |
76% |
89% |
81% |
89% |
88% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.42% |
5.69% |
5.37% |
8.24% |
5.05% |
5.57% |
7.27% |
7.11% |
5.17% |
6.58% |
15.07% |
| Max Decline |
19.63% |
21.13% |
19.58% |
20.91% |
8.36% |
14.95% |
24.92% |
21.29% |
20.24% |
30.36% |
64.31% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
15 |
15 |
15 |
21 |
18 |
12 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
13 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.62% |
-1.49% |
-0.71% |
-1.48% |
-1.09% |
-2.21% |
-1.58% |
-0.91% |
-2.29% |
-1.45% |
-2.04% |
| Max Increase |
-4.67% |
-5.30% |
-5.00% |
-11.21% |
-2.41% |
-7.69% |
-5.91% |
-6.30% |
-12.86% |
-5.45% |
-12.06% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
6 |
9 |
7 |
13 |
13 |
9 |
9 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
-24 |
| 2010 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
| Action |
|
Yes |
|
No |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
| High |
987.5 |
993.6 |
962.7 |
976.8 |
1027.7 |
1073.3 |
1197.5 |
1229.0 |
1166.7 |
1131.5 |
1145.8 |
| Low |
895.6 |
921.7 |
910.9 |
934.6 |
952.1 |
989.3 |
1045.0 |
1076.5 |
1074.4 |
1044.5 |
1084.8 |
| Close/Last |
985.9 |
932.7 |
958.4 |
955.9 |
1011.5 |
1042.5 |
1183.6 |
1097.6 |
1083.8 |
1118.9 |
1113.3 |
|
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