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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Dec 31, 2023
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Dec 35951.00 37779.00 35914.00 37690.00 95% 45 31 29 94% 37779.00 39952.81 37690.00
#TRAN Higher Dec 15019.00 16174.00 15018.00 15899.00 76% 45 31 29 94% 16174.00 17509.50 15899.00
#OEX Higher Dec 2154.65 2248.55 2131.80 2236.20 89% 45 30 29 97% 2248.55 2374.23 2236.20
#QR Higher Dec 1809.00 2042.45 1800.80 2033.95 96% 44 33 32 97% Yes 2184.70 2033.95
#MZ Higher Dec 2563.60 2817.95 2555.70 2781.55 86% 3 2 2 100% 2817.95 2852.55 2781.55
#VLE Higher Dec 9179.00 10125.00 9157.00 10018.00 89% 40 33 32 97% 10125.00 10768.04 10018.00
#SP Higher Dec 4567.75 4793.25 4546.50 4769.75 90% 45 33 32 97% 4793.25 5047.26 4769.75
YMH4 Higher Dec 36349 38089 36305 38012 96% 26 19 17 89% 38089 39768 38012
USH4 Higher Dec 116~140 125~300 116~130 124~300 90% 45 23 20 87% 125~300 130~081 124~300
TYH4 Higher Dec 109~255 113~120 109~250 112~285 87% 41 20 18 90% 113~120 116~092 112~285
FVH4 Higher Dec 106~272 108~314 106~242 108~246 91% 35 17 15 88% 108~314 110~202 108~246
CDH4 Higher Dec 73.83 75.99 73.54 75.63 85% 45 23 20 87% 75.99 77.45 75.63
SFH4 Higher Dec 115.58 120.97 114.59 119.80 82% 45 26 22 85% 120.97 124.20 119.80
GCJ4 Higher Dec 2076.7 2171.5 2007.4 2091.8 51% 45 22 20 91% 2171.5 2346.8 2091.8
PLJ4 Higher Dec 942.9 1031.0 897.5 1009.2 84% 45 21 21 100% 1031.0 1167.8 1009.2
PAH4 Higher Dec 1020.40 1260.00 926.50 1109.30 55% 45 28 25 89% 1260.00 1507.95 1109.30
HGH4 Higher Dec 385.05 397.40 372.90 389.05 66% 45 26 23 88% 397.40 432.42 389.05
NGH4 Lower Dec 2.637 2.671 2.098 2.327 40% 33 22 19 86% 2.098 1.689 2.327
SH4 Lower Dec 1362.25 1362.50 1296.75 1298.00 2% 45 26 22 85% 1296.75 1235.12 1298.00
SK4 Lower Dec 1375.25 1375.50 1306.25 1307.25 1% 45 24 21 88% 1306.25 1244.82 1307.25
BOH4 Lower Dec 52.05 52.30 47.56 48.18 13% 45 29 25 86% 47.56 44.97 48.18
SMK4 Lower Dec 408.00 407.40 381.60 384.80 12% 45 25 21 84% 381.60 356.11 384.80
LCQ4 Higher Dec 170.400 172.680 163.635 171.030 82% 45 31 29 94% 172.680 177.873 171.030
FCH4 Higher Dec 222.580 227.180 210.635 223.100 75% 45 29 25 86% 227.180 235.976 223.100
FCJ4 Higher Dec 226.680 232.450 213.700 228.900 81% 45 30 27 90% 232.450 241.025 228.900
FCK4 Higher Dec 230.500 237.080 216.680 234.580 88% 45 29 29 100% 237.080 244.886 234.580
CTH4 Higher Dec 80.06 83.13 78.31 81.00 56% 45 31 27 87% 83.13 90.95 81.00
CTK4 Higher Dec 80.70 83.45 79.28 82.15 69% 45 31 27 87% 83.45 91.36 82.15


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 35951.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 37690.00(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 35914.00(Month Low) to 37779.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #DJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 37779.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 39952.81(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Transportation
The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 15019.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 15899.00(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 15018.00(Month Low) to 16174.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #TRAN went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 16174.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 17509.50(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2154.65(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2236.20(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 2131.80(Month Low) to 2248.55(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #OEX went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 97%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 2248.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 2374.23(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1809.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2033.95(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 1800.80(Month Low) to 2042.45(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in December than November in 33(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 33, the #QR went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 32 years(Action Years) or 97%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 2042.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 32 years) a potential move toward 2184.70(Average Objective).

S&P MidCap 400 Index
The #MZ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2563.60(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2781.55(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 2555.70(Month Low) to 2817.95(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 3 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S&P MidCap 400 Index also closed higher in December than November in 2(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 2, the #MZ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 2 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MZ should exceed 2817.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 2 years) a potential move toward 2852.55(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 9179.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 10018.00(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 9157.00(Month Low) to 10125.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in December than November in 33(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 33, the #VLE went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 32 years(Action Years) or 97%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 10125.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 32 years) a potential move toward 10768.04(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 4567.75(Prev Close), the market ended December at 4769.75(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 4546.50(Month Low) to 4793.25(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in December than November in 33(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 33, the #SP went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 32 years(Action Years) or 97%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 4793.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 32 years) a potential move toward 5047.26(Average Objective).

March E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT)
The YMH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 36349(Prev Close), the market ended December at 38012(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 36305(Month Low) to 38089(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, YMH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the YMH should exceed 38089(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 39768(Average Objective).

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 116~140(Prev Close), the market ended December at 124~300(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 116~130(Month Low) to 125~300(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, USH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 125~300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 130~081(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 109~255(Prev Close), the market ended December at 112~285(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 109~250(Month Low) to 113~120(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, TYH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 113~120(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 116~092(Average Objective).

March 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The FVH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 106~272(Prev Close), the market ended December at 108~246(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 106~242(Month Low) to 108~314(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, FVH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FVH should exceed 108~314(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 110~202(Average Objective).

March Canadian Dollar(CME)
The CDH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 73.83(Prev Close), the market ended December at 75.63(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 73.54(Month Low) to 75.99(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CDH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDH should exceed 75.99(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 77.45(Average Objective).

March Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 115.58(Prev Close), the market ended December at 119.80(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 114.59(Month Low) to 120.97(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SFH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should exceed 120.97(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 124.20(Average Objective).

April Gold(CMX)
The GCJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2076.7(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2091.8(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 2007.4(Month Low) to 2171.5(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, GCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should exceed 2171.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 2346.8(Average Objective).

April Platinum(NYMEX)
The PLJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 942.9(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1009.2(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 897.5(Month Low) to 1031.0(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, PLJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1031.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1167.8(Average Objective).

March Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1020.40(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1109.30(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 926.50(Month Low) to 1260.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, PAH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 1260.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 1507.95(Average Objective).

March Copper(CMX)
The HGH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 385.05(Prev Close), the market ended December at 389.05(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 372.90(Month Low) to 397.40(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Copper(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGH should exceed 397.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 432.42(Average Objective).

March Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2.637(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2.327(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 2.098(Month Low) to 2.671(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, NGH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 2.098(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1.689(Average Objective).

March Soybeans(CBOT)
The SH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1362.25(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1298.00(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 1296.75(Month Low) to 1362.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should penetrate 1296.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1235.12(Average Objective).

May Soybeans(CBOT)
The SK4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1375.25(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1307.25(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 1306.25(Month Low) to 1375.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SK should penetrate 1306.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1244.82(Average Objective).

March Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 52.05(Prev Close), the market ended December at 48.18(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 47.56(Month Low) to 52.30(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, BOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOH should penetrate 47.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 44.97(Average Objective).

May Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMK4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 408.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 384.80(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 381.60(Month Low) to 407.40(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SMK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should penetrate 381.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 356.11(Average Objective).

August Live Cattle(CME)
The LCQ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 170.400(Prev Close), the market ended December at 171.030(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 163.635(Month Low) to 172.680(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, LCQ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 172.680(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 177.873(Average Objective).

March Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 222.580(Prev Close), the market ended December at 223.100(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 210.635(Month Low) to 227.180(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, FCH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 227.180(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 235.976(Average Objective).

April Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 226.680(Prev Close), the market ended December at 228.900(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 213.700(Month Low) to 232.450(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, FCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 232.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 241.025(Average Objective).

May Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 230.500(Prev Close), the market ended December at 234.580(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 216.680(Month Low) to 237.080(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, FCK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 237.080(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 244.886(Average Objective).

March Cotton(ICE)
The CTH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 80.06(Prev Close), the market ended December at 81.00(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 78.31(Month Low) to 83.13(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, CTH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTH should exceed 83.13(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 90.95(Average Objective).

May Cotton(ICE)
The CTK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 80.70(Prev Close), the market ended December at 82.15(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 79.28(Month Low) to 83.45(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, CTK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTK should exceed 83.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 91.36(Average Objective).
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