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ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of May 10, 2024 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
Tested Years | 44 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 23 | 19 | 21 | 31 | 20 | 23 | 19 | 24 | 26 | 24 | 21 | |
Exceeded High | 17 | 13 | 20 | 22 | 17 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 22 | 21 | 14 | |
Scenario Percentage | 74% | 68% | 95% | 71% | 85% | 52% | 68% | 88% | 85% | 88% | 67% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.06% | 9.34% | 8.57% | 6.96% | 9.24% | 16.09% | 16.14% | 10.58% | 9.45% | 9.43% | 8.13% | |
Max Increase | 22.59% | 22.17% | 30.92% | 19.39% | 26.95% | 42.58% | 62.39% | 35.25% | 39.26% | 26.97% | 22.18% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 23 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.89% | -2.20% | -1.30% | -2.81% | -3.70% | -2.85% | -2.25% | -3.60% | -2.58% | -3.54% | -1.53% | |
Max Decline | -14.06% | -8.82% | -5.01% | -15.30% | -9.63% | -10.21% | -6.80% | -10.31% | -9.34% | -13.65% | -5.38% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | |
2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.