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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jun 30, 2021
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#NQ Higher Jun 13686.50 14582.25 13469.75 14554.75 98% 35 17 15 88% 14582.25 15779.71 14554.75
#VLE Higher Jun 9629.00 9841.00 9403.00 9696.00 67% 38 20 17 85% 9841.00 10391.20 9696.00
#SP Higher Jun 4204.00 4302.50 4165.25 4297.50 96% 45 27 23 85% 4302.50 4511.08 4297.50
SFU1 Lower Jun 111.47 112.31 108.17 108.19 0% 45 17 15 88% 108.17 104.37 108.19
DXU1 Higher Jun 89.998 92.440 89.650 92.430 100% 35 14 13 93% 92.440 94.730 92.430
CLV1 Higher Jun 65.02 72.77 65.09 71.76 87% 38 19 16 84% 72.77 79.84 71.76
CLX1 Higher Jun 64.45 71.86 64.54 70.89 87% 38 19 17 89% 71.86 78.45 70.89
HOV1 Higher Jun 204.18 219.44 204.50 213.14 58% 41 20 19 95% 219.44 239.80 213.14
HOX1 Higher Jun 204.17 219.23 204.90 213.03 57% 42 21 20 95% 219.23 238.71 213.03
RBV1 Higher Jun 198.41 214.86 198.14 209.92 70% 36 19 18 95% 214.86 234.55 209.92
RBX1 Higher Jun 194.59 210.88 194.65 205.87 69% 36 17 16 94% 210.88 228.88 205.87
CBX1 Higher Jun 67.96 74.18 68.00 73.05 82% 31 16 15 94% 74.18 81.30 73.05
CBZ1 Higher Jun 67.48 73.50 67.53 72.37 81% 31 16 15 94% 73.50 80.38 72.37
SMU1 Lower Jun 395.40 406.10 342.30 379.00 58% 45 22 20 91% 342.30 307.81 379.00
SMV1 Lower Jun 392.30 402.80 342.90 378.80 60% 45 23 21 91% 342.90 309.31 378.80
LCV1 Higher Jun 123.700 130.485 119.835 128.150 78% 45 22 21 95% 130.485 136.713 128.150
LCZ1 Higher Jun 128.050 133.450 124.350 132.100 85% 45 23 22 96% 133.450 139.148 132.100
FCU1 Higher Jun 153.530 161.750 148.030 157.430 69% 45 25 24 96% 161.750 170.287 157.430
FCV1 Higher Jun 155.030 162.950 150.235 159.530 73% 45 23 23 100% 162.950 171.731 159.530
JOX1 Higher Jun 124.60 134.05 121.40 125.80 35% 45 18 16 89% 134.05 143.94 125.80
KCU1 Lower Jun 164.30 168.65 149.05 159.75 55% 45 32 28 88% 149.05 130.03 159.75
KCZ1 Lower Jun 167.00 171.35 152.05 162.65 55% 45 32 28 88% 152.05 134.46 162.65


NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NQ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 13686.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 14554.75(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 13469.75(Month Low) to 14582.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in June than May in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #NQ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NQ should exceed 14582.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 15779.71(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 9629.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 9696.00(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 9403.00(Month Low) to 9841.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #VLE went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 9841.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 10391.20(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 4204.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 4297.50(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 4165.25(Month Low) to 4302.50(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in June than May in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #SP went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 4302.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 4511.08(Average Objective).

September Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 111.47(Prev Close), the market ended June at 108.19(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 108.17(Month Low) to 112.31(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in June than May in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, SFU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFU should penetrate 108.17(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 104.37(Average Objective).

September US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 89.998(Prev Close), the market ended June at 92.430(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 89.650(Month Low) to 92.440(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, DXU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should exceed 92.440(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 94.730(Average Objective).

October Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 65.02(Prev Close), the market ended June at 71.76(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 65.09(Month Low) to 72.77(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLV should exceed 72.77(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 79.84(Average Objective).

November Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 64.45(Prev Close), the market ended June at 70.89(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 64.54(Month Low) to 71.86(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CLX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLX should exceed 71.86(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 78.45(Average Objective).

October NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 204.18(Prev Close), the market ended June at 213.14(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 204.50(Month Low) to 219.44(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, HOV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOV should exceed 219.44(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 239.80(Average Objective).

November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 204.17(Prev Close), the market ended June at 213.03(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 204.90(Month Low) to 219.23(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOX should exceed 219.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 238.71(Average Objective).

October RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 198.41(Prev Close), the market ended June at 209.92(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 198.14(Month Low) to 214.86(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RBV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBV should exceed 214.86(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 234.55(Average Objective).

November RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 194.59(Prev Close), the market ended June at 205.87(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 194.65(Month Low) to 210.88(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in June than May in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBX should exceed 210.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 228.88(Average Objective).

November Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The CBX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 67.96(Prev Close), the market ended June at 73.05(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 68.00(Month Low) to 74.18(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBX should exceed 74.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 81.30(Average Objective).

December Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The CBZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 67.48(Prev Close), the market ended June at 72.37(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 67.53(Month Low) to 73.50(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBZ should exceed 73.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 80.38(Average Objective).

September Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 395.40(Prev Close), the market ended June at 379.00(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 342.30(Month Low) to 406.10(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SMU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMU should penetrate 342.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 307.81(Average Objective).

October Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMV1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 392.30(Prev Close), the market ended June at 378.80(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 342.90(Month Low) to 402.80(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SMV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMV should penetrate 342.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 309.31(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 123.700(Prev Close), the market ended June at 128.150(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 119.835(Month Low) to 130.485(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 130.485(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 136.713(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 128.050(Prev Close), the market ended June at 132.100(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 124.350(Month Low) to 133.450(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LCZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 133.450(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 139.148(Average Objective).

September Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCU1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 153.530(Prev Close), the market ended June at 157.430(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 148.030(Month Low) to 161.750(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCU should exceed 161.750(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 170.287(Average Objective).

October Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCV1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 155.030(Prev Close), the market ended June at 159.530(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 150.235(Month Low) to 162.950(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, FCV went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCV should exceed 162.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 171.731(Average Objective).

November Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOX1(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 124.60(Prev Close), the market ended June at 125.80(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 121.40(Month Low) to 134.05(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, JOX went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOX should exceed 134.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 143.94(Average Objective).

September Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCU1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 164.30(Prev Close), the market ended June at 159.75(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 149.05(Month Low) to 168.65(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, KCU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 149.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 130.03(Average Objective).

December Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCZ1(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 167.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 162.65(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 152.05(Month Low) to 171.35(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, KCZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should penetrate 152.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 134.46(Average Objective).
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