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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for November Crude Oil(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   34 34 37 38 38 39 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Higher   16 17 18 23 26 26 19 20 25 21 21
Exceeded High   14 17 15 20 24 22 15 18 23 17 17
Scenario Percentage   88% 100% 83% 87% 92% 85% 79% 90% 92% 81% 81%
Avg Max Increase   9.35% 9.07% 11.44% 9.99% 9.01% 8.00% 10.43% 9.64% 12.45% 11.50% 5.82%
Max Increase   14.39% 25.02% 26.51% 22.99% 21.11% 30.62% 19.30% 21.00% 85.48% 52.07% 11.78%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 19 17 21 17 14 17 15 19 13 12
Avg Max Decline   -1.62% -1.82% -2.07% -2.02% -2.87% -2.20% -1.95% -2.53% -2.97% -3.77% -2.50%
Max Decline   -7.78% -7.26% -9.78% -13.57% -10.64% -6.56% -7.56% -14.99% -15.09% -14.66% -14.33%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 8 7 11 9 10 6 8 8 9 3
2021 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   34 34 37 38 38 39 39 39 39 39 39
Closed Lower   18 17 18 15 11 13 20 19 13 18 18
Penetrated Low   15 12 9 8 6 6 15 13 10 8 12
Scenario Percentage   83% 71% 50% 53% 55% 46% 75% 68% 77% 44% 67%
Avg Max Decline   13.76% 14.60% 17.44% 12.87% 12.74% 7.28% 9.04% 11.82% 12.96% 16.27% 8.08%
Max Decline   29.15% 34.08% 46.53% 46.58% 25.77% 15.18% 22.02% 36.28% 27.64% 40.81% 31.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 17 19 12 16 20 17 17 14 11 8
Avg Max Increase   -1.00% -1.86% -2.46% -2.06% -4.81% -3.44% -1.23% -2.30% -2.99% -1.89% -1.37%
Max Increase   -7.37% -9.13% -6.26% -7.13% -12.06% -7.78% -5.78% -8.90% -16.89% -6.43% -4.83%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 8 5 8 8 17 4 9 9 8 2
2021 Contract Condition           Yes         Yes  
Action           No         Not Yet  
High 43.59 45.93 48.65 51.86 59.82 63.28 63.30 65.49 71.86 73.58 72.37 76.67
Low 38.42 37.77 44.33 47.00 49.69 55.91 56.47 60.43 64.54 63.96 61.50 66.92
Close/Last 39.12 45.39 47.85 50.02 57.67 57.29 61.55 64.45 70.89 72.43 68.26 75.03

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