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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Dec 31, 2018
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
USH9 Higher Dec 139~290 146~090 139~140 146~000 96% 41 22 19 86% 146~090 151~143 146~000
TYH9 Higher Dec 119~145 122~040 119~045 122~005 96% 36 19 17 89% 122~040 125~126 122~005
EDH9 Higher Dec 97.155 97.305 97.120 97.290 92% 36 19 17 89% 97.305 97.637 97.290
EDM9 Higher Dec 97.085 97.335 97.045 97.315 93% 36 19 18 95% 97.335 97.776 97.315
BPH9 Lower Dec 128.14 129.12 125.40 127.90 67% 43 20 17 85% 125.40 119.91 127.90
GCJ9 Higher Dec 1231.8 1292.6 1233.0 1287.7 92% 43 20 17 85% 1292.6 1406.1 1287.7
SIH9 Higher Dec 1421.7 1557.5 1428.0 1554.0 97% 45 21 19 90% 1557.5 1823.0 1554.0
PAH9 Higher Dec 1144.60 1210.20 1135.80 1197.20 83% 41 24 21 88% 1210.20 1458.09 1197.20
HOJ9 Lower Dec 180.67 192.43 160.92 165.61 15% 39 19 16 84% 160.92 138.79 165.61
NGM9 Lower Dec 2.780 2.935 2.709 2.717 4% 28 16 14 88% 2.709 2.449 2.717
SH9 Lower Dec 907.50 941.00 880.50 895.00 24% 45 28 24 86% 880.50 834.52 895.00
SK9 Lower Dec 920.50 953.00 893.50 907.75 24% 45 26 23 88% 893.50 847.51 907.75
BOH9 Lower Dec 28.30 29.50 27.58 27.85 14% 45 30 27 90% 27.58 25.94 27.85
BOK9 Lower Dec 28.56 29.77 27.81 28.12 16% 45 25 23 92% 27.81 26.15 28.12
RRH9 Lower Dec 11.07 11.27 10.11 10.37 22% 32 19 16 84% 10.11 9.17 10.37
LCJ9 Higher Dec 122.000 126.950 121.450 126.250 87% 45 27 24 89% 126.950 133.418 126.250
LCM9 Higher Dec 113.650 117.250 112.780 117.085 96% 45 28 27 96% 117.250 121.539 117.085
LCQ9 Higher Dec 111.585 114.250 110.835 114.180 98% 44 29 27 93% 114.250 118.305 114.180
FCH9 Higher Dec 142.850 147.580 140.350 146.750 89% 45 26 24 92% 147.580 154.695 146.750
FCJ9 Higher Dec 143.635 147.830 141.300 147.250 91% 45 27 25 93% 147.830 154.700 147.250
JOH9 Lower Dec 143.40 144.10 124.30 125.80 8% 45 32 27 84% 124.30 111.38 125.80
JOK9 Lower Dec 143.20 144.50 125.45 127.00 8% 45 32 27 84% 125.45 111.97 127.00
KCK9 Lower Dec 110.45 113.65 101.95 104.95 26% 45 21 18 86% 101.95 93.42 104.95
LBH9 Higher Dec 333.1 347.4 320.1 337.0 62% 45 28 24 86% 347.4 384.1 337.0


March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 139~290(Prev Close), the market ended December at 146~000(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 139~140(Month Low) to 146~090(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, USH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 146~090(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 151~143(Average Objective).

March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 119~145(Prev Close), the market ended December at 122~005(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 119~045(Month Low) to 122~040(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, TYH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 122~040(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 125~126(Average Objective).

March Eurodollars(CME)
The EDH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 97.155(Prev Close), the market ended December at 97.290(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 97.120(Month Low) to 97.305(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 97.305(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 97.637(Average Objective).

June Eurodollars(CME)
The EDM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 97.085(Prev Close), the market ended December at 97.315(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 97.045(Month Low) to 97.335(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 97.335(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 97.776(Average Objective).

March British Pound(CME)
The BPH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 128.14(Prev Close), the market ended December at 127.90(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 125.40(Month Low) to 129.12(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March British Pound(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, BPH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPH should penetrate 125.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 119.91(Average Objective).

April Gold(CMX)
The GCJ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1231.8(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1287.7(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 1233.0(Month Low) to 1292.6(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, GCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should exceed 1292.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1406.1(Average Objective).

March Silver(CMX)
The SIH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1421.7(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1554.0(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 1428.0(Month Low) to 1557.5(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Silver(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SIH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIH should exceed 1557.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1823.0(Average Objective).

March Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1144.60(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1197.20(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 1135.80(Month Low) to 1210.20(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, PAH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 1210.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1458.09(Average Objective).

April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 180.67(Prev Close), the market ended December at 165.61(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 160.92(Month Low) to 192.43(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOJ went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 160.92(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 138.79(Average Objective).

June Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2.780(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2.717(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 2.709(Month Low) to 2.935(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGM went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should penetrate 2.709(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.449(Average Objective).

March Soybeans(CBOT)
The SH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 907.50(Prev Close), the market ended December at 895.00(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 880.50(Month Low) to 941.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, SH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should penetrate 880.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 834.52(Average Objective).

May Soybeans(CBOT)
The SK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 920.50(Prev Close), the market ended December at 907.75(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 893.50(Month Low) to 953.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SK should penetrate 893.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 847.51(Average Objective).

March Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 28.30(Prev Close), the market ended December at 27.85(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 27.58(Month Low) to 29.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, BOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOH should penetrate 27.58(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 25.94(Average Objective).

May Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 28.56(Prev Close), the market ended December at 28.12(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 27.81(Month Low) to 29.77(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should penetrate 27.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 26.15(Average Objective).

March Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 11.07(Prev Close), the market ended December at 10.37(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 10.11(Month Low) to 11.27(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RRH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRH should penetrate 10.11(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 9.17(Average Objective).

April Live Cattle(CME)
The LCJ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 122.000(Prev Close), the market ended December at 126.250(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 121.450(Month Low) to 126.950(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 126.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 133.418(Average Objective).

June Live Cattle(CME)
The LCM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 113.650(Prev Close), the market ended December at 117.085(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 112.780(Month Low) to 117.250(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 117.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 121.539(Average Objective).

August Live Cattle(CME)
The LCQ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 111.585(Prev Close), the market ended December at 114.180(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 110.835(Month Low) to 114.250(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, LCQ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 114.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 118.305(Average Objective).

March Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 142.850(Prev Close), the market ended December at 146.750(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 140.350(Month Low) to 147.580(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, FCH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 147.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 154.695(Average Objective).

April Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCJ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 143.635(Prev Close), the market ended December at 147.250(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 141.300(Month Low) to 147.830(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, FCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 147.830(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 154.700(Average Objective).

March Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 143.40(Prev Close), the market ended December at 125.80(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 124.30(Month Low) to 144.10(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, JOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOH should penetrate 124.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 111.38(Average Objective).

May Orange Juice(ICE)
The JOK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 143.20(Prev Close), the market ended December at 127.00(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 125.45(Month Low) to 144.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, JOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOK should penetrate 125.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 111.97(Average Objective).

May Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 110.45(Prev Close), the market ended December at 104.95(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 101.95(Month Low) to 113.65(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KCK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 101.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 93.42(Average Objective).

March Lumber(CME)
The LBH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 333.1(Prev Close), the market ended December at 337.0(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 320.1(Month Low) to 347.4(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LBH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 347.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 384.1(Average Objective).
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