MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Dec 31, 2018

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

USH9

Higher

Dec

139~290

146~090

139~140

146~000

96%

86%

146~090

151~143

146~000

TYH9

Higher

Dec

119~145

122~040

119~045

122~005

96%

89%

122~040

125~126

122~005

EDH9

Higher

Dec

97.155

97.305

97.120

97.290

92%

89%

97.305

97.637

97.290

EDM9

Higher

Dec

97.085

97.335

97.045

97.315

93%

95%

97.335

97.776

97.315

BPH9

Lower

Dec

128.14

129.12

125.40

127.90

67%

85%

125.40

119.91

127.90

GCJ9

Higher

Dec

1231.8

1292.6

1233.0

1287.7

92%

85%

1292.6

1406.1

1287.7

SIH9

Higher

Dec

1421.7

1557.5

1428.0

1554.0

97%

90%

1557.5

1823.0

1554.0

PAH9

Higher

Dec

1144.60

1210.20

1135.80

1197.20

83%

88%

1210.20

1458.09

1197.20

HOJ9

Lower

Dec

180.67

192.43

160.92

165.61

15%

84%

160.92

138.79

165.61

NGM9

Lower

Dec

2.780

2.935

2.709

2.717

88%

2.709

2.449

2.717

SH9

Lower

Dec

907.50

941.00

880.50

895.00

24%

86%

880.50

834.52

895.00

SK9

Lower

Dec

920.50

953.00

893.50

907.75

24%

88%

893.50

847.51

907.75

BOH9

Lower

Dec

28.30

29.50

27.58

27.85

14%

90%

27.58

25.94

27.85

BOK9

Lower

Dec

28.56

29.77

27.81

28.12

16%

92%

27.81

26.15

28.12

RRH9

Lower

Dec

11.07

11.27

10.11

10.37

22%

84%

10.11

9.17

10.37

LCJ9

Higher

Dec

122.000

126.950

121.450

126.250

87%

89%

126.950

133.418

126.250

LCM9

Higher

Dec

113.650

117.250

112.780

117.085

96%

117.250

121.539

117.085

LCQ9

Higher

Dec

111.585

114.250

110.835

114.180

98%

93%

114.250

118.305

114.180

FCH9

Higher

Dec

142.850

147.580

140.350

146.750

89%

92%

147.580

154.695

146.750

FCJ9

Higher

Dec

143.635

147.830

141.300

147.250

91%

93%

147.830

154.700

147.250

JOH9

Lower

Dec

143.40

144.10

124.30

125.80

84%

124.30

111.38

125.80

JOK9

Lower

Dec

143.20

144.50

125.45

127.00

84%

125.45

111.97

127.00

KCK9

Lower

Dec

110.45

113.65

101.95

104.95

26%

86%

101.95

93.42

104.95

LBH9

Higher

Dec

333.1

347.4

320.1

337.0

62%

86%

347.4

384.1

337.0

March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 139~290(Prev Close), the market ended December at 146~000(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 139~140(Month Low) to 146~090(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, USH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 146~090(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 151~143(Average Objective).
March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 119~145(Prev Close), the market ended December at 122~005(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 119~045(Month Low) to 122~040(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, TYH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 122~040(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 125~126(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 97.155(Prev Close), the market ended December at 97.290(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 97.120(Month Low) to 97.305(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 97.305(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 97.637(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 97.085(Prev Close), the market ended December at 97.315(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 97.045(Month Low) to 97.335(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, EDM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 97.335(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 97.776(Average Objective).
March British Pound(CME): The BPH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 128.14(Prev Close), the market ended December at 127.90(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 125.40(Month Low) to 129.12(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March British Pound(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, BPH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPH should penetrate 125.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 119.91(Average Objective).
April Gold(CMX): The GCJ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1231.8(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1287.7(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 1233.0(Month Low) to 1292.6(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, GCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should exceed 1292.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1406.1(Average Objective).
March Silver(CMX): The SIH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1421.7(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1554.0(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 1428.0(Month Low) to 1557.5(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Silver(CMX) also closed higher in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SIH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SIH should exceed 1557.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1823.0(Average Objective).
March Palladium(NYMEX): The PAH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1144.60(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1197.20(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 1135.80(Month Low) to 1210.20(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, PAH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAH should exceed 1210.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 1458.09(Average Objective).
April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOJ9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 180.67(Prev Close), the market ended December at 165.61(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 160.92(Month Low) to 192.43(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HOJ went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 160.92(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 138.79(Average Objective).
June Natural Gas(NYM): The NGM9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2.780(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2.717(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 2.709(Month Low) to 2.935(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGM went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should penetrate 2.709(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.449(Average Objective).
March Soybeans(CBOT): The SH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 907.50(Prev Close), the market ended December at 895.00(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 880.50(Month Low) to 941.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, SH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should penetrate 880.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 834.52(Average Objective).
May Soybeans(CBOT): The SK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 920.50(Prev Close), the market ended December at 907.75(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 893.50(Month Low) to 953.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SK should penetrate 893.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 847.51(Average Objective).
March Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 28.30(Prev Close), the market ended December at 27.85(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 27.58(Month Low) to 29.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, BOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOH should penetrate 27.58(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 25.94(Average Objective).
May Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 28.56(Prev Close), the market ended December at 28.12(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 27.81(Month Low) to 29.77(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, BOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOK should penetrate 27.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 26.15(Average Objective).
March Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 11.07(Prev Close), the market ended December at 10.37(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 10.11(Month Low) to 11.27(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, RRH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRH should penetrate 10.11(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 9.17(Average Objective).
April Live Cattle(CME): The LCJ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 122.000(Prev Close), the market ended December at 126.250(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 121.450(Month Low) to 126.950(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, LCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 126.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 133.418(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 113.650(Prev Close), the market ended December at 117.085(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 112.780(Month Low) to 117.250(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LCM went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 117.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 121.539(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 111.585(Prev Close), the market ended December at 114.180(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 110.835(Month Low) to 114.250(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, LCQ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 114.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 118.305(Average Objective).
March Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 142.850(Prev Close), the market ended December at 146.750(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 140.350(Month Low) to 147.580(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, FCH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 147.580(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 154.695(Average Objective).
April Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCJ9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 143.635(Prev Close), the market ended December at 147.250(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 141.300(Month Low) to 147.830(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, FCJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCJ should exceed 147.830(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 154.700(Average Objective).
March Orange Juice(ICE): The JOH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 143.40(Prev Close), the market ended December at 125.80(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 124.30(Month Low) to 144.10(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, JOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOH should penetrate 124.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 111.38(Average Objective).
May Orange Juice(ICE): The JOK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 143.20(Prev Close), the market ended December at 127.00(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 125.45(Month Low) to 144.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, JOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOK should penetrate 125.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 111.97(Average Objective).
May Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCK9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 110.45(Prev Close), the market ended December at 104.95(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 101.95(Month Low) to 113.65(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KCK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 101.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 93.42(Average Objective).
March Lumber(CME): The LBH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 333.1(Prev Close), the market ended December at 337.0(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 320.1(Month Low) to 347.4(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, LBH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 347.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 384.1(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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