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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   18 23 14 25 20 27 19 16 21 28 21
Exceeded High   14 17 11 20 14 18 11 13 19 20 12
Scenario Percentage   78% 74% 79% 80% 70% 67% 58% 81% 90% 71% 57%
Avg Max Increase   8.18% 9.30% 9.10% 14.74% 20.26% 12.12% 17.86% 22.65% 16.41% 11.80% 6.90%
Max Increase   14.78% 27.27% 19.77% 81.96% 67.95% 34.44% 67.34% 115.36% 42.86% 24.65% 15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 13 14 16 15 16 13 16 18 17 14
Avg Max Decline   -2.82% -2.01% -1.56% -3.72% -1.75% -3.11% -3.33% -1.80% -3.28% -3.04% -1.50%
Max Decline   -10.75% -9.91% -7.22% -13.99% -10.68% -11.59% -10.90% -10.80% -14.99% -14.24% -3.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 9 6 9 4 6 4 4 12 7 3
2019 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes     Yes Yes  
Action   No Yes       Yes     Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   27 22 31 20 25 18 26 29 24 17 24
Penetrated Low   22 18 21 15 14 14 19 24 16 10 18
Scenario Percentage   81% 82% 68% 75% 56% 78% 73% 83% 67% 59% 75%
Avg Max Decline   9.93% 10.11% 7.27% 6.98% 11.78% 11.05% 9.18% 8.47% 9.42% 8.29% 6.89%
Max Decline   31.14% 25.10% 19.78% 17.69% 38.41% 31.24% 24.69% 33.78% 24.57% 17.27% 57.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 13 16 20 20 23 13 16 19 11 10
Avg Max Increase   -2.50% -2.91% -2.66% -3.77% -2.80% -4.32% -3.70% -2.98% -4.13% -4.11% -1.87%
Max Increase   -9.64% -8.54% -8.28% -30.43% -14.94% -12.66% -8.49% -9.95% -12.35% -6.52% -8.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 6 11 9 13 18 9 7 17 9 3
2019 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes
Action       Yes Yes Yes   Yes No     Yes
High 1735.0 1776.0 1723.0 1768.0 1648.5 1577.0 1486.5 1505.5 1504.0 1557.5 1620.0 1619.5
Low 1660.0 1659.0 1644.5 1621.0 1540.5 1455.5 1407.5 1435.5 1398.5 1428.0 1519.5 1544.5
Close/Last 1674.0 1675.8 1680.6 1643.3 1576.7 1466.7 1482.0 1439.9 1421.7 1554.0 1607.2 1553.8

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Newsflash

Think again! Fed cuts and MRCI seasonal trends could unlock profits in Treasuries. Challenge yourself to explore the TLT ETF and futures. https://www.barchart.com/story/news/33123477/lower-interest-rates-in-the-3rd-quarter-opportunities-for-traders-and-consumers

Historical research from Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) highlights a seasonal tendency for Treasury prices to rise and yields to fall in July. This pattern holds across the 5-year, 15-year, and 30-year seasonal patterns, implying that the fundamentals during this period have been relatively consistent, driven by market dynamics and investor behavior. July often sees reduced trading volumes due to summer slowdowns, which can amplify price movements in bonds. Investors may rebalance their portfolios in the third quarter, as the end of September marks the Federal government's year-end, which is expected to increase demand for Treasuries.

This seasonal trend offers traders a potential edge. For instance, MRCI data shows the 10-year Treasury note often rallies in July, with prices rising as yields dip. This could be a short-term opportunity for those positioned in Treasury futures or ETFs. However, seasonality is not a guarantee; traders must combine it with other analyses, such as technical indicators or macroeconomic trends, to make informed decisions.