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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45
Closed Higher   20 14 22 24 27 18 23 21 22 22 16
Exceeded High   14 10 17 19 18 14 20 18 15 14 9
Scenario Percentage   70% 71% 77% 79% 67% 78% 87% 86% 68% 64% 56%
Avg Max Increase   5.99% 5.12% 12.21% 10.91% 9.08% 7.64% 10.73% 11.46% 6.67% 4.37% 4.96%
Max Increase   26.63% 13.22% 41.74% 36.12% 22.65% 17.89% 102.90% 60.45% 15.35% 7.67% 12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase   13 15 17 18 14 13 16 16 17 14 19
Avg Max Decline   -1.17% -0.95% -1.86% -0.70% -1.67% -1.51% -2.20% -1.65% -2.07% -1.31% -0.88%
Max Decline   -4.91% -4.21% -4.29% -3.49% -6.30% -6.01% -9.36% -9.23% -7.12% -4.74% -1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 11 7 3 8 3 8 6 6 5 5
2019 Contract Condition             Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action             Yes Yes Yes Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 30 22 20 17 26 21 23 23 23 29
Penetrated Low   18 18 16 13 11 21 17 17 18 21 20
Scenario Percentage   75% 60% 73% 65% 65% 81% 81% 74% 78% 91% 69%
Avg Max Decline   6.92% 5.53% 5.39% 7.99% 5.19% 5.86% 6.53% 7.13% 5.25% 6.61% 3.15%
Max Decline   19.63% 21.13% 19.58% 20.91% 8.36% 14.95% 24.92% 21.29% 20.24% 30.36% 9.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 15 16 20 17 13 15 16 14 12 11
Avg Max Increase   -1.56% -1.14% -0.79% -1.62% -1.82% -2.14% -1.45% -0.93% -2.25% -1.37% -0.75%
Max Increase   -4.67% -5.30% -5.00% -11.21% -6.73% -7.69% -5.91% -6.30% -12.86% -5.45% -3.63%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 8 6 12 14 10 8 7 8 9 4
2019 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes         Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes Yes No No         Yes Yes
High 1399.1 1356.9 1337.8 1289.5 1243.7 1229.0 1257.3 1251.0 1292.6 1331.1 1349.8 1324.5
Low 1346.9 1314.5 1271.7 1233.1 1182.7 1195.7 1199.2 1209.3 1233.0 1281.5 1304.7 1280.8
Close/Last 1350.9 1329.7 1278.3 1244.9 1217.7 1207.4 1226.8 1231.8 1287.7 1325.2 1316.1 1293.0

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