MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Mar 31, 2016

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Mar

16517.00

17790.00

16546.00

17685.00

92%

90%

17790.00

18903.24

17685.00

#UTIL

Higher

Mar

620.70

669.45

607.60

668.55

99%

96%

669.45

701.22

668.55

#OEX

Higher

Mar

859.45

919.65

861.20

912.95

89%

88%

919.65

971.49

912.95

#NDX

Higher

Mar

4201.10

4518.20

4225.90

4483.70

88%

84%

4518.20

4890.46

4483.70

#RUT

Higher

Mar

1033.90

1117.80

1035.50

1114.05

95%

96%

1117.80

1183.07

1114.05

#VLE

Higher

Mar

4172.90

4558.60

4171.10

4540.20

95%

92%

4558.60

4829.35

4540.20

#SSNI

Higher

Mar

16027

17291

15857

16759

63%

95%

17291

18454

16759

#SP

Higher

Mar

1932.25

2072.20

1937.10

2059.75

91%

86%

2072.20

2188.41

2059.75

EUM6

Higher

Mar

109.18

114.38

108.53

114.12

96%

100%

114.38

120.29

114.12

DXM6

Lower

Mar

98.335

98.700

94.295

94.578

100%

94.295

90.984

94.578

CLN6

Higher

Mar

37.79

43.69

37.32

40.69

53%

90%

43.69

47.34

40.69

CLQ6

Higher

Mar

38.50

44.09

38.00

41.36

55%

87%

44.09

47.82

41.36

CLU6

Higher

Mar

39.10

44.35

38.62

41.90

57%

91%

44.35

47.78

41.90

ITCOQ6

Higher

Mar

38.46

43.76

37.93

41.22

56%

94%

43.76

47.60

41.22

ITCOU6

Higher

Mar

39.09

44.14

38.56

41.74

57%

94%

44.14

47.85

41.74

ITCOV6

Higher

Mar

39.66

44.52

39.12

42.27

58%

94%

44.52

48.40

42.27

HON6

Higher

Mar

115.68

130.77

114.53

122.15

47%

96%

130.77

142.58

122.15

HOQ6

Higher

Mar

117.99

132.34

116.84

124.15

47%

96%

132.34

143.91

124.15

HOU6

Higher

Mar

120.38

134.23

119.28

126.35

47%

96%

134.23

144.81

126.35

RBQ6

Higher

Mar

133.55

151.07

130.75

144.13

66%

87%

151.07

164.87

144.13

RBU6

Higher

Mar

130.87

147.57

128.26

141.18

67%

88%

147.57

161.15

141.18

NGN6

Higher

Mar

1.985

2.241

1.939

2.153

71%

100%

2.241

2.532

2.153

NGQ6

Higher

Mar

2.034

2.295

1.994

2.212

72%

100%

2.295

2.591

2.212

NGU6

Higher

Mar

2.054

2.327

2.009

2.237

72%

100%

2.327

2.615

2.237

CBN6

Higher

Mar

37.83

43.43

37.27

40.77

57%

94%

43.43

47.51

40.77

CBQ6

Higher

Mar

38.46

43.76

37.93

41.22

56%

94%

43.76

47.60

41.22

CBU6

Higher

Mar

39.09

44.14

38.56

41.74

57%

94%

44.14

47.85

41.74

SX6

Higher

Mar

873.50

929.50

868.00

924.75

92%

88%

929.50

986.73

924.75

BON6

Higher

Mar

31.11

34.56

30.33

34.44

97%

91%

34.56

38.19

34.44

BOQ6

Higher

Mar

31.20

34.64

30.43

34.53

97%

85%

34.64

38.34

34.53

BOU6

Higher

Mar

31.27

34.76

30.53

34.63

97%

85%

34.76

38.44

34.63

CU6

Lower

Mar

367.25

382.50

356.75

360.50

15%

100%

356.75

333.40

360.50

CZ6

Lower

Mar

375.75

390.00

364.75

368.75

16%

100%

364.75

342.22

368.75

KWU6

Higher

Mar

480.75

513.00

471.00

501.00

71%

88%

513.00

559.50

501.00

LCM6

Lower

Mar

126.180

131.350

122.280

124.030

19%

86%

122.280

114.088

124.030

LCQ6

Lower

Mar

121.150

125.350

118.280

120.180

27%

86%

118.280

111.980

120.180

LEM6

Higher

Mar

80.750

83.980

80.000

80.850

21%

88%

83.980

91.624

80.850

LEQ6

Higher

Mar

79.835

82.085

78.650

80.400

51%

92%

82.085

89.103

80.400

LEV6

Higher

Mar

68.450

70.400

67.885

68.930

42%

85%

70.400

75.126

68.930

SBV6

Higher

Mar

14.31

16.68

14.10

15.61

59%

94%

16.68

18.08

15.61

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 16517.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 17685.00(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 16546.00(Month Low) to 17790.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in March than February in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #DJ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 17790.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 18903.24(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 620.70(Prev Close), the market ended March at 668.55(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 607.60(Month Low) to 669.45(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #UTIL went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 669.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 701.22(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 859.45(Prev Close), the market ended March at 912.95(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 861.20(Month Low) to 919.65(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #OEX went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 919.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 971.49(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 4201.10(Prev Close), the market ended March at 4483.70(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 4225.90(Month Low) to 4518.20(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #NDX went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 4518.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 4890.46(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1033.90(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1114.05(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 1035.50(Month Low) to 1117.80(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #RUT went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1117.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 1183.07(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 4172.90(Prev Close), the market ended March at 4540.20(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 4171.10(Month Low) to 4558.60(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #VLE went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 4558.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 4829.35(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 16027(Prev Close), the market ended March at 16759(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 15857(Month Low) to 17291(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SSNI went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 17291(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 18454(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1932.25(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2059.75(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1937.10(Month Low) to 2072.20(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in March than February in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #SP went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2072.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 2188.41(Average Objective).
June EuroFX(CME): The EUM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 109.18(Prev Close), the market ended March at 114.12(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 108.53(Month Low) to 114.38(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, EUM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUM should exceed 114.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 120.29(Average Objective).
June US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 98.335(Prev Close), the market ended March at 94.578(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 94.295(Month Low) to 98.700(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, DXM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should penetrate 94.295(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 90.984(Average Objective).
July Crude Oil(NYM): The CLN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 37.79(Prev Close), the market ended March at 40.69(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 37.32(Month Low) to 43.69(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CLN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLN should exceed 43.69(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 47.34(Average Objective).
August Crude Oil(NYM): The CLQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 38.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 41.36(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 38.00(Month Low) to 44.09(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CLQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLQ should exceed 44.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 47.82(Average Objective).
September Crude Oil(NYM): The CLU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 39.10(Prev Close), the market ended March at 41.90(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 38.62(Month Low) to 44.35(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CLU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLU should exceed 44.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 47.78(Average Objective).
August Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 38.46(Prev Close), the market ended March at 41.22(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 37.93(Month Low) to 43.76(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ITCOQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOQ should exceed 43.76(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 47.60(Average Objective).
September Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 39.09(Prev Close), the market ended March at 41.74(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 38.56(Month Low) to 44.14(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ITCOU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOU should exceed 44.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 47.85(Average Objective).
October Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 39.66(Prev Close), the market ended March at 42.27(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 39.12(Month Low) to 44.52(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, ITCOV went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOV should exceed 44.52(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 48.40(Average Objective).
July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HON6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 115.68(Prev Close), the market ended March at 122.15(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 114.53(Month Low) to 130.77(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HON should exceed 130.77(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 142.58(Average Objective).
August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 117.99(Prev Close), the market ended March at 124.15(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 116.84(Month Low) to 132.34(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HOQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOQ should exceed 132.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 143.91(Average Objective).
September NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 120.38(Prev Close), the market ended March at 126.35(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 119.28(Month Low) to 134.23(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, HOU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOU should exceed 134.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 144.81(Average Objective).
August RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 133.55(Prev Close), the market ended March at 144.13(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 130.75(Month Low) to 151.07(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, RBQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBQ should exceed 151.07(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 164.87(Average Objective).
September RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 130.87(Prev Close), the market ended March at 141.18(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 128.26(Month Low) to 147.57(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, RBU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 147.57(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 161.15(Average Objective).
July Natural Gas(NYM): The NGN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1.985(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.153(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 1.939(Month Low) to 2.241(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should exceed 2.241(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2.532(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2.034(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.212(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 1.994(Month Low) to 2.295(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 2.295(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2.591(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2.054(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.237(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 2.009(Month Low) to 2.327(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 2.327(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2.615(Average Objective).
July Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 37.83(Prev Close), the market ended March at 40.77(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 37.27(Month Low) to 43.43(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBN should exceed 43.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 47.51(Average Objective).
August Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 38.46(Prev Close), the market ended March at 41.22(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 37.93(Month Low) to 43.76(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBQ should exceed 43.76(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 47.60(Average Objective).
September Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 39.09(Prev Close), the market ended March at 41.74(Month Close), that being 57%(Pct Range) off of 38.56(Month Low) to 44.14(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, CBU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBU should exceed 44.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 47.85(Average Objective).
November Soybeans(CBOT): The SX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 873.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 924.75(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 868.00(Month Low) to 929.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, SX went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SX should exceed 929.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 986.73(Average Objective).
July Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BON6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 31.11(Prev Close), the market ended March at 34.44(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 30.33(Month Low) to 34.56(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, BON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should exceed 34.56(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 38.19(Average Objective).
August Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 31.20(Prev Close), the market ended March at 34.53(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 30.43(Month Low) to 34.64(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should exceed 34.64(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 38.34(Average Objective).
September Soybean Oil(CBOT): The BOU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 31.27(Prev Close), the market ended March at 34.63(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 30.53(Month Low) to 34.76(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOU should exceed 34.76(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 38.44(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 367.25(Prev Close), the market ended March at 360.50(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 356.75(Month Low) to 382.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 356.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 333.40(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 375.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 368.75(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 364.75(Month Low) to 390.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CZ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 364.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 342.22(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 480.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 501.00(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 471.00(Month Low) to 513.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in March than February in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, KWU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should exceed 513.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 559.50(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 126.180(Prev Close), the market ended March at 124.030(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 122.280(Month Low) to 131.350(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should penetrate 122.280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 114.088(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 121.150(Prev Close), the market ended March at 120.180(Month Close), that being 27%(Pct Range) off of 118.280(Month Low) to 125.350(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LCQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should penetrate 118.280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 111.980(Average Objective).
June Lean Hogs(CME): The LEM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 80.750(Prev Close), the market ended March at 80.850(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 80.000(Month Low) to 83.980(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LEM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEM should exceed 83.980(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 91.624(Average Objective).
August Lean Hogs(CME): The LEQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 79.835(Prev Close), the market ended March at 80.400(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 78.650(Month Low) to 82.085(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LEQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEQ should exceed 82.085(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 89.103(Average Objective).
October Lean Hogs(CME): The LEV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 68.450(Prev Close), the market ended March at 68.930(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 67.885(Month Low) to 70.400(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LEV went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEV should exceed 70.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 75.126(Average Objective).
October Sugar #11(ICE): The SBV6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 14.31(Prev Close), the market ended March at 15.61(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 14.10(Month Low) to 16.68(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SBV went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 16.68(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 18.08(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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