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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Aug 31, 2012
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt
Cond
Month		 Prev
Close		 Month
High		 Month
Low		 Month
Close		 Pct
Range		 Total
Years		 Cond
Years		 Action
Years
Pct		 Scenario
Objective		 Average
Objective		 Last
Price
#NDX Higher Aug 2642.50 2802.90 2606.90 2772.20 84% 26 15 13 87% 2802.90 2994.58 2772.20
#RUT Higher Aug 786.95 827.15 765.20 812.10 76% 33 19 17 89% 827.15 865.86 812.10
NDZ2 Higher Aug 2629.00 2790.00 2601.00 2763.50 86% 16 8 7 88% 2790.00 3021.12 2763.50
NDH3 Higher Aug 2623.50 2769.80 2605.50 2758.00 93% 16 8 7 88% 2769.80 2987.42 2758.00
TYZ2 Higher Aug 133~205 133~275 131~025 133~230 95% 30 22 21 95% 133~275 137~217 133~230
TYH3 Higher Aug 132~255 132~280 130~135 132~280 100% 29 22 20 91% 132~280 136~244 132~280
EDZ2 Higher Aug 99.630 99.655 99.575 99.645 87% 30 22 21 95% 99.655 100.228 99.645
EDH3 Higher Aug 99.625 99.655 99.555 99.645 90% 30 21 20 95% 99.655 100.263 99.645
EDM3 Higher Aug 99.610 99.645 99.530 99.635 91% 30 21 20 95% 99.645 100.302 99.635
SFZ2 Higher Aug 102.87 105.46 101.62 105.01 88% 37 19 17 89% 105.46 111.24 105.01
SFH3 Higher Aug 103.18 105.26 101.98 105.26 100% 37 19 17 89% 105.26 111.03 105.26
CDZ2 Higher Aug 99.42 101.35 98.90 101.23 95% 35 19 16 84% 101.35 103.75 101.23
CDH3 Higher Aug 99.19 101.10 98.69 100.98 95% 36 20 17 85% 101.10 103.39 100.98
DXZ2 Lower Aug 83.030 83.945 81.300 81.530 9% 26 15 14 93% 81.300 78.396 81.530
DXH3 Lower Aug 83.420 84.190 81.920 81.920 0% 26 15 13 87% 81.920 79.257 81.920
GCZ2 Higher Aug 1614.6 1695.5 1586.3 1687.6 93% 37 19 16 84% 1695.5 1874.0 1687.6
GCG3 Higher Aug 1616.7 1697.0 1588.7 1689.7 93% 37 19 16 84% 1697.0 1875.0 1689.7
HOZ2 Higher Aug 287.11 318.84 285.00 317.59 96% 33 17 17 100% 318.84 346.96 317.59
HOF3 Higher Aug 287.56 317.80 285.39 317.10 98% 33 17 17 100% 317.80 344.00 317.10
HOG3 Higher Aug 287.27 316.65 285.48 315.45 96% 33 17 17 100% 316.65 342.22 315.45
HOH3 Higher Aug 286.01 314.09 283.70 312.96 96% 33 17 16 94% 314.09 339.14 312.96
HOJ3 Higher Aug 284.14 310.99 282.06 309.98 97% 31 16 15 94% 310.99 333.67 309.98
RBF3 Higher Aug 249.48 282.88 250.29 280.36 92% 27 13 12 92% 282.88 304.53 280.36
RBG3 Higher Aug 250.02 282.44 251.10 279.87 92% 27 13 12 92% 282.44 302.19 279.87
RBH3 Higher Aug 251.54 283.25 252.03 280.67 92% 25 12 11 92% 283.25 302.66 280.67
RBJ3 Higher Aug 266.09 296.00 266.53 294.23 94% 26 14 13 93% 296.00 313.68 294.23
NGZ2 Lower Aug 3.579 3.594 3.055 3.220 31% 22 11 11 100% 3.055 2.655 3.220
NGF3 Lower Aug 3.690 3.706 3.200 3.357 31% 22 12 11 92% 3.200 2.851 3.357
NGG3 Lower Aug 3.702 3.715 3.222 3.375 31% 22 14 12 86% 3.222 2.893 3.375
NGH3 Lower Aug 3.673 3.688 3.210 3.364 32% 22 12 11 92% 3.210 2.887 3.364
NGJ3 Lower Aug 3.640 3.658 3.205 3.357 34% 22 12 11 92% 3.205 2.946 3.357
NGZ2 Lower Aug 3.579 3.594 3.055 3.220 31% 22 11 11 100% 3.055 2.655 3.220
LCV2 Higher Aug 124.400 127.230 123.350 126.030 69% 45 20 17 85% 127.230 134.197 126.030
LCZ2 Higher Aug 127.480 129.350 126.635 128.650 74% 45 20 18 90% 129.350 135.950 128.650
LCG3 Higher Aug 131.280 132.500 130.100 132.250 90% 45 17 15 88% 132.500 137.841 132.250
FCV2 Higher Aug 141.825 147.250 139.530 146.680 93% 40 23 20 87% 147.250 153.875 146.680
FCX2 Higher Aug 144.350 148.350 141.850 147.800 92% 40 22 19 86% 148.350 155.096 147.800
FCF3 Higher Aug 147.930 150.400 145.325 149.735 87% 35 18 16 89% 150.400 155.787 149.735
JOX2 Higher Aug 109.85 122.75 103.50 118.95 80% 45 24 21 88% 122.75 136.78 118.95
CTZ2 Higher Aug 71.34 77.49 70.21 77.26 97% 44 17 15 88% 77.49 86.03 77.26


NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2642.50(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2772.20(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 2606.90(Month Low) to 2802.90(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #NDX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2802.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2994.58(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 786.95(Prev Close), the market ended August at 812.10(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 765.20(Month Low) to 827.15(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #RUT went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 827.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 865.86(Average Objective).

December NASDAQ 100(CME)
The NDZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2629.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2763.50(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 2601.00(Month Low) to 2790.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDZ should exceed 2790.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 3021.12(Average Objective).
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