MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Aug 31, 2012

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#NDX

Higher

Aug

2642.50

2802.90

2606.90

2772.20

84%

87%

2802.90

2994.58

2772.20

#RUT

Higher

Aug

786.95

827.15

765.20

812.10

76%

89%

827.15

865.86

812.10

NDZ2

Higher

Aug

2629.00

2790.00

2601.00

2763.50

86%

88%

2790.00

3021.12

2763.50

NDH3

Higher

Aug

2623.50

2769.80

2605.50

2758.00

93%

88%

2769.80

2987.42

2758.00

TYZ2

Higher

Aug

133~205

133~275

131~025

133~230

95%

133~275

137~217

133~230

TYH3

Higher

Aug

132~255

132~280

130~135

132~280

100%

91%

132~280

136~244

132~280

EDZ2

Higher

Aug

99.630

99.655

99.575

99.645

87%

95%

99.655

100.228

99.645

EDH3

Higher

Aug

99.625

99.655

99.555

99.645

90%

95%

99.655

100.263

99.645

EDM3

Higher

Aug

99.610

99.645

99.530

99.635

91%

95%

99.645

100.302

99.635

SFZ2

Higher

Aug

102.87

105.46

101.62

105.01

88%

89%

105.46

111.24

105.01

SFH3

Higher

Aug

103.18

105.26

101.98

105.26

100%

89%

105.26

111.03

105.26

CDZ2

Higher

Aug

99.42

101.35

98.90

101.23

95%

84%

101.35

103.75

101.23

CDH3

Higher

Aug

99.19

101.10

98.69

100.98

95%

85%

101.10

103.39

100.98

DXZ2

Lower

Aug

83.030

83.945

81.300

81.530

93%

81.300

78.396

81.530

DXH3

Lower

Aug

83.420

84.190

81.920

87%

81.920

79.257

81.920

GCZ2

Higher

Aug

1614.6

1695.5

1586.3

1687.6

93%

84%

1695.5

1874.0

1687.6

GCG3

Higher

Aug

1616.7

1697.0

1588.7

1689.7

93%

84%

1697.0

1875.0

1689.7

HOZ2

Higher

Aug

287.11

318.84

285.00

317.59

96%

100%

318.84

346.96

317.59

HOF3

Higher

Aug

287.56

317.80

285.39

317.10

98%

100%

317.80

344.00

317.10

HOG3

Higher

Aug

287.27

316.65

285.48

315.45

96%

100%

316.65

342.22

315.45

HOH3

Higher

Aug

286.01

314.09

283.70

312.96

96%

94%

314.09

339.14

312.96

HOJ3

Higher

Aug

284.14

310.99

282.06

309.98

97%

94%

310.99

333.67

309.98

RBF3

Higher

Aug

249.48

282.88

250.29

280.36

92%

282.88

304.53

280.36

RBG3

Higher

Aug

250.02

282.44

251.10

279.87

92%

282.44

302.19

279.87

RBH3

Higher

Aug

251.54

283.25

252.03

280.67

92%

283.25

302.66

280.67

RBJ3

Higher

Aug

266.09

296.00

266.53

294.23

94%

93%

296.00

313.68

294.23

NGZ2

Lower

Aug

3.579

3.594

3.055

3.220

31%

100%

3.055

2.655

3.220

NGF3

Lower

Aug

3.690

3.706

3.200

3.357

31%

92%

3.200

2.851

3.357

NGG3

Lower

Aug

3.702

3.715

3.222

3.375

31%

86%

3.222

2.893

3.375

NGH3

Lower

Aug

3.673

3.688

3.210

3.364

32%

92%

3.210

2.887

3.364

NGJ3

Lower

Aug

3.640

3.658

3.205

3.357

34%

92%

3.205

2.946

3.357

NGZ2

Lower

Aug

3.579

3.594

3.055

3.220

31%

100%

3.055

2.655

3.220

LCV2

Higher

Aug

124.400

127.230

123.350

126.030

69%

85%

127.230

134.197

126.030

LCZ2

Higher

Aug

127.480

129.350

126.635

128.650

74%

90%

129.350

135.950

128.650

LCG3

Higher

Aug

131.280

132.500

130.100

132.250

90%

88%

132.500

137.841

132.250

FCV2

Higher

Aug

141.825

147.250

139.530

146.680

93%

87%

147.250

153.875

146.680

FCX2

Higher

Aug

144.350

148.350

141.850

147.800

92%

86%

148.350

155.096

147.800

FCF3

Higher

Aug

147.930

150.400

145.325

149.735

87%

89%

150.400

155.787

149.735

JOX2

Higher

Aug

109.85

122.75

103.50

118.95

80%

88%

122.75

136.78

118.95

CTZ2

Higher

Aug

71.34

77.49

70.21

77.26

97%

88%

77.49

86.03

77.26

NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2642.50(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2772.20(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 2606.90(Month Low) to 2802.90(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #NDX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2802.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2994.58(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 786.95(Prev Close), the market ended August at 812.10(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 765.20(Month Low) to 827.15(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #RUT went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 827.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 865.86(Average Objective).
December NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2629.00(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2763.50(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 2601.00(Month Low) to 2790.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDZ should exceed 2790.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 3021.12(Average Objective).
March NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 2623.50(Prev Close), the market ended August at 2758.00(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 2605.50(Month Low) to 2769.80(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 2769.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 2987.42(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 133~205(Prev Close), the market ended August at 133~230(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 131~025(Month Low) to 133~275(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 133~275(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 137~217(Average Objective).
March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 132~255(Prev Close), the market ended August at 132~280(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 130~135(Month Low) to 132~280(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, TYH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 132~280(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 136~244(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.630(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.645(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 99.575(Month Low) to 99.655(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 99.655(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 100.228(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.625(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.645(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 99.555(Month Low) to 99.655(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 99.655(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 100.263(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.610(Prev Close), the market ended August at 99.635(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 99.530(Month Low) to 99.645(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, EDM went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should exceed 99.645(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 100.302(Average Objective).
December Swiss Franc(CME): The SFZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 102.87(Prev Close), the market ended August at 105.01(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 101.62(Month Low) to 105.46(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SFZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 105.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 111.24(Average Objective).
March Swiss Franc(CME): The SFH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 103.18(Prev Close), the market ended August at 105.26(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 101.98(Month Low) to 105.26(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SFH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should exceed 105.26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 111.03(Average Objective).
December Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.42(Prev Close), the market ended August at 101.23(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 98.90(Month Low) to 101.35(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDZ should exceed 101.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 103.75(Average Objective).
March Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 99.19(Prev Close), the market ended August at 100.98(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 98.69(Month Low) to 101.10(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDH should exceed 101.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 103.39(Average Objective).
December US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 83.030(Prev Close), the market ended August at 81.530(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 81.300(Month Low) to 83.945(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, DXZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 81.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 78.396(Average Objective).
March US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 83.420(Prev Close), the market ended August at 81.920(Month Close), that being 0%(Pct Range) off of 81.920(Month Low) to 84.190(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, DXH went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXH should penetrate 81.920(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 79.257(Average Objective).
December Gold(CMX): The GCZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1614.6(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1687.6(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 1586.3(Month Low) to 1695.5(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Gold(CMX) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCZ should exceed 1695.5(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1874.0(Average Objective).
February Gold(CMX): The GCG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 1616.7(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1689.7(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 1588.7(Month Low) to 1697.0(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Gold(CMX) also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCG should exceed 1697.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1875.0(Average Objective).
December Heating Oil(NYM): The HOZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 287.11(Prev Close), the market ended August at 317.59(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 285.00(Month Low) to 318.84(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 318.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 346.96(Average Objective).
January Heating Oil(NYM): The HOF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 287.56(Prev Close), the market ended August at 317.10(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 285.39(Month Low) to 317.80(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should exceed 317.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 344.00(Average Objective).
February Heating Oil(NYM): The HOG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 287.27(Prev Close), the market ended August at 315.45(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 285.48(Month Low) to 316.65(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should exceed 316.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 342.22(Average Objective).
March Heating Oil(NYM): The HOH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 286.01(Prev Close), the market ended August at 312.96(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 283.70(Month Low) to 314.09(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should exceed 314.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 339.14(Average Objective).
April Heating Oil(NYM): The HOJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 284.14(Prev Close), the market ended August at 309.98(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 282.06(Month Low) to 310.99(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Heating Oil(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, HOJ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should exceed 310.99(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 333.67(Average Objective).
January Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 249.48(Prev Close), the market ended August at 280.36(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 250.29(Month Low) to 282.88(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 282.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 304.53(Average Objective).
February Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 250.02(Prev Close), the market ended August at 279.87(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 251.10(Month Low) to 282.44(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBG should exceed 282.44(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 302.19(Average Objective).
March Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBH3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 251.54(Prev Close), the market ended August at 280.67(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 252.03(Month Low) to 283.25(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, RBH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBH should exceed 283.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 302.66(Average Objective).
April Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBJ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 266.09(Prev Close), the market ended August at 294.23(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 266.53(Month Low) to 296.00(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RBJ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should exceed 296.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 313.68(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.579(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.220(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 3.055(Month Low) to 3.594(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 3.055(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.655(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.690(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.357(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 3.200(Month Low) to 3.706(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGF went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 3.200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.851(Average Objective).
February Natural Gas(NYM): The NGG3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.702(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.375(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 3.222(Month Low) to 3.715(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, NGG went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should penetrate 3.222(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2.893(Average Objective).
March Natural Gas(NYM): The NGH3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.673(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.364(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 3.210(Month Low) to 3.688(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGH went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGH should penetrate 3.210(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.887(Average Objective).
April Natural Gas(NYM): The NGJ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.640(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.357(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 3.205(Month Low) to 3.658(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGJ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 3.205(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.946(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 3.579(Prev Close), the market ended August at 3.220(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 3.055(Month Low) to 3.594(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 22 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in August than July in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGZ went on to penetrate the August low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 3.055(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.655(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 124.400(Prev Close), the market ended August at 126.030(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 123.350(Month Low) to 127.230(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCV went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should exceed 127.230(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 134.197(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 127.480(Prev Close), the market ended August at 128.650(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 126.635(Month Low) to 129.350(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 129.350(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 135.950(Average Objective).
February Live Cattle(CME): The LCG3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 131.280(Prev Close), the market ended August at 132.250(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 130.100(Month Low) to 132.500(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, LCG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 132.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 137.841(Average Objective).
October Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCV2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 141.825(Prev Close), the market ended August at 146.680(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 139.530(Month Low) to 147.250(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, FCV went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCV should exceed 147.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 153.875(Average Objective).
November Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 144.350(Prev Close), the market ended August at 147.800(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 141.850(Month Low) to 148.350(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, FCX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 148.350(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 155.096(Average Objective).
January Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCF3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 147.930(Prev Close), the market ended August at 149.735(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 145.325(Month Low) to 150.400(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, FCF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 150.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 155.787(Average Objective).
November Orange Juice(ICE): The JOX2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 109.85(Prev Close), the market ended August at 118.95(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 103.50(Month Low) to 122.75(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, JOX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOX should exceed 122.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 136.78(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 71.34(Prev Close), the market ended August at 77.26(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 70.21(Month Low) to 77.49(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CTZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should exceed 77.49(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 86.03(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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