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| ScenarioSM Study for NASDAQ 100 Index as of Jan 01, 2013 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
| Tested Years | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | |
| Closed Higher | 19 | 14 | 18 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | |
| Exceeded High | 13 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 16 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 68% | 93% | 83% | 93% | 94% | 85% | 87% | 88% | 94% | 88% | 94% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 9.56% | 9.32% | 9.03% | 8.76% | 6.10% | 8.66% | 7.16% | 7.63% | 9.86% | 12.85% | 6.31% | |
| Max Increase | 15.29% | 15.72% | 17.94% | 16.40% | 22.95% | 12.91% | 10.16% | 19.67% | 30.90% | 42.20% | 26.42% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 22 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 14 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.57% | -2.67% | -2.58% | -2.81% | -2.18% | -1.87% | -3.03% | -2.70% | -4.22% | -2.11% | -1.11% | |
| Max Decline | -12.33% | -7.29% | -9.12% | -8.23% | -4.49% | -5.58% | -7.48% | -6.44% | -20.96% | -5.04% | -3.62% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 4 | |
| 2012 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | ||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
