(1) Are the current overall economic and market conditions disrupting the futures market enough to make trading commodities based on historical seasonal charts unreliable?
Any and every year seems to have its own unique features that could disrupt seasonal patterns for some market(s) or other. All we can do is provide the research that suggests how markets have tended to behave over a recent 15-year period. Such basic fundamentals as grain harvests, the arrival of cold temperatures in winter, peak driving conditions in July/August, US fiscal years and tax deadlines, etc., do not change from year to year --- although the degree of their influence on markets may due to some macrofundamental. We do not presume to have any more insight than anyone else as to what a market may do in any given year or period. We do suggest, however, that each trader who has knowledge of seasonal tendencies can anticipate, recognize, and act upon the potential recurrence of "normal" market behavior rather than constantly react to news --- which can give him an enormous advantage over most traders.
As a newbie should I wait till the market settles down and gets back to a more normal rhythm or is it possible to get started now?
The sooner you start paper trading and watching markets the sooner you will become more knowledgeable --- and better able to judge that for yourself.
Are there certain commodities that are less affected by the general craziness that is now occurring?
You can look at charts to see for yourself. Peruse through the (free) monthly charts at the following address:
http://www.mrci.com/pdf/index.php
Are the odds of succeeding now worse than during more normal market conditions?
The risk is higher because of the volatility, bur so is the opportunity. Be a student of markets and trading, start slowly, and --- most importantly --- manage your risk.
