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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Sep 29, 2023
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
EUZ3 Lower Sep 109.01 109.38 105.26 106.13 21% 24 13 12 92% 105.26 102.14 106.13
JYZ3 Lower Sep 69.93 70.41 67.69 67.78 3% 45 23 22 96% 67.69 65.31 67.78
SFZ3 Lower Sep 114.52 114.97 109.35 110.16 14% 45 19 17 89% 109.35 105.82 110.16
DXZ3 Higher Sep 103.228 106.540 102.870 105.815 80% 37 18 16 89% 106.540 109.736 105.815
PAZ3 Higher Sep 1218.70 1301.50 1180.50 1256.00 62% 45 26 23 88% 1301.50 1451.80 1256.00
CLZ3 Higher Sep 82.26 92.48 82.09 88.80 65% 40 21 19 90% 92.48 98.70 88.80
CLF4 Higher Sep 81.58 90.27 81.45 86.98 63% 40 20 17 85% 90.27 97.03 86.98
CLG4 Higher Sep 80.93 88.21 80.80 85.27 60% 40 20 17 85% 88.21 94.49 85.27
HOZ3 Higher Sep 293.56 326.61 293.22 315.78 68% 44 26 22 85% 326.61 349.79 315.78
NGZ3 Lower Sep 3.611 3.656 3.240 3.312 17% 33 17 16 94% 3.240 2.738 3.312
NGF4 Lower Sep 3.835 3.876 3.501 3.565 17% 33 16 15 94% 3.501 2.968 3.565
NGG4 Lower Sep 3.752 3.793 3.429 3.497 19% 33 17 16 94% 3.429 2.974 3.497
SF4 Lower Sep 1382.00 1398.00 1292.50 1294.50 2% 45 27 24 89% 1292.50 1210.09 1294.50
SH4 Lower Sep 1385.25 1403.00 1307.00 1310.25 3% 45 25 23 92% 1307.00 1228.29 1310.25
SMF4 Lower Sep 401.40 406.70 379.10 379.40 1% 45 27 25 93% 379.10 357.99 379.40
SMH4 Lower Sep 396.10 400.80 374.70 375.00 1% 45 27 24 89% 374.70 353.37 375.00
OZ3 Lower Sep 493.25 509.75 417.75 432.50 16% 45 20 18 90% 417.75 380.04 432.50
LCZ3 Higher Sep 184.800 192.050 183.500 187.930 52% 45 24 22 92% 192.050 201.185 187.930
LCG4 Higher Sep 188.850 196.600 187.580 192.500 55% 45 26 24 92% 196.600 205.215 192.500
LCJ4 Higher Sep 192.680 199.830 191.530 195.500 48% 45 23 22 96% 199.830 206.659 195.500
FCX3 Lower Sep 257.650 268.250 254.050 254.900 6% 45 20 18 90% 254.050 243.948 254.900
FCF4 Higher Sep 256.700 268.500 254.000 258.050 28% 45 25 22 88% 268.500 279.591 258.050
HEZ3 Lower Sep 74.330 78.700 71.630 71.780 2% 45 15 15 100% 71.630 65.667 71.780
HEG4 Lower Sep 78.700 81.300 75.000 75.450 7% 45 16 14 88% 75.000 70.195 75.450
CCH4 Lower Sep 3648 3765 3404 3428 7% 45 23 20 87% 3404 3099 3428
CCK4 Lower Sep 3633 3735 3385 3406 6% 45 23 20 87% 3385 3088 3406
SBH4 Higher Sep 25.43 27.88 25.43 26.48 43% 45 21 18 86% 27.88 31.54 26.48
SBK4 Higher Sep 24.02 26.38 24.03 25.26 52% 45 23 20 87% 26.38 29.24 25.26


December EuroFX(CME)
The EUZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 109.01(Prev Close), the market ended September at 106.13(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 105.26(Month Low) to 109.38(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December EuroFX(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EUZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUZ should penetrate 105.26(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 102.14(Average Objective).

December Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 69.93(Prev Close), the market ended September at 67.78(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 67.69(Month Low) to 70.41(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, JYZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should penetrate 67.69(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 65.31(Average Objective).

December Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 114.52(Prev Close), the market ended September at 110.16(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 109.35(Month Low) to 114.97(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SFZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should penetrate 109.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 105.82(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 103.228(Prev Close), the market ended September at 105.815(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 102.870(Month Low) to 106.540(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, DXZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should exceed 106.540(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 109.736(Average Objective).

December Palladium(NYMEX)
The PAZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 1218.70(Prev Close), the market ended September at 1256.00(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 1180.50(Month Low) to 1301.50(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, PAZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 1301.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1451.80(Average Objective).

December Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 82.26(Prev Close), the market ended September at 88.80(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 82.09(Month Low) to 92.48(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CLZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLZ should exceed 92.48(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 98.70(Average Objective).

January Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 81.58(Prev Close), the market ended September at 86.98(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 81.45(Month Low) to 90.27(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLF should exceed 90.27(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 97.03(Average Objective).

February Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 80.93(Prev Close), the market ended September at 85.27(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 80.80(Month Low) to 88.21(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CLG went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should exceed 88.21(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 94.49(Average Objective).

December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 293.56(Prev Close), the market ended September at 315.78(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 293.22(Month Low) to 326.61(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HOZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 326.61(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 349.79(Average Objective).

December Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.611(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3.312(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 3.240(Month Low) to 3.656(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 3.240(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2.738(Average Objective).

January Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGF4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.835(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3.565(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 3.501(Month Low) to 3.876(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 3.501(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2.968(Average Objective).

February Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGG4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3.752(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3.497(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 3.429(Month Low) to 3.793(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in September than August in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGG went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGG should penetrate 3.429(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2.974(Average Objective).

January Soybeans(CBOT)
The SF4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 1382.00(Prev Close), the market ended September at 1294.50(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 1292.50(Month Low) to 1398.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SF should penetrate 1292.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 1210.09(Average Objective).

March Soybeans(CBOT)
The SH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 1385.25(Prev Close), the market ended September at 1310.25(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 1307.00(Month Low) to 1403.00(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should penetrate 1307.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1228.29(Average Objective).

January Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMF4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 401.40(Prev Close), the market ended September at 379.40(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 379.10(Month Low) to 406.70(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMF went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMF should penetrate 379.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 357.99(Average Objective).

March Soybean Meal(CBOT)
The SMH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 396.10(Prev Close), the market ended September at 375.00(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 374.70(Month Low) to 400.80(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, SMH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMH should penetrate 374.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 353.37(Average Objective).

December Oats(CBOT)
The OZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 493.25(Prev Close), the market ended September at 432.50(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 417.75(Month Low) to 509.75(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, OZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OZ should penetrate 417.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 380.04(Average Objective).

December Live Cattle(CME)
The LCZ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 184.800(Prev Close), the market ended September at 187.930(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 183.500(Month Low) to 192.050(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LCZ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should exceed 192.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 201.185(Average Objective).

February Live Cattle(CME)
The LCG4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 188.850(Prev Close), the market ended September at 192.500(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 187.580(Month Low) to 196.600(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LCG went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should exceed 196.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 205.215(Average Objective).

April Live Cattle(CME)
The LCJ4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 192.680(Prev Close), the market ended September at 195.500(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 191.530(Month Low) to 199.830(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, LCJ went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCJ should exceed 199.830(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 206.659(Average Objective).

November Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCX3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 257.650(Prev Close), the market ended September at 254.900(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 254.050(Month Low) to 268.250(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, FCX went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should penetrate 254.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 243.948(Average Objective).

January Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCF4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 256.700(Prev Close), the market ended September at 258.050(Month Close), that being 28%(Pct Range) off of 254.000(Month Low) to 268.500(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in September than August in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, FCF went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCF should exceed 268.500(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 279.591(Average Objective).

December Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEZ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 74.330(Prev Close), the market ended September at 71.780(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 71.630(Month Low) to 78.700(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HEZ went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEZ should penetrate 71.630(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 65.667(Average Objective).

February Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEG4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 78.700(Prev Close), the market ended September at 75.450(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 75.000(Month Low) to 81.300(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in September than August in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, HEG went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEG should penetrate 75.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 70.195(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(ICE)
The CCH4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3648(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3428(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 3404(Month Low) to 3765(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CCH went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 3404(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 3099(Average Objective).

May Cocoa(ICE)
The CCK4(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 3633(Prev Close), the market ended September at 3406(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 3385(Month Low) to 3735(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CCK went on to penetrate the September low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should penetrate 3385(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 3088(Average Objective).

March Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBH4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 25.43(Prev Close), the market ended September at 26.48(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 25.43(Month Low) to 27.88(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SBH went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBH should exceed 27.88(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 31.54(Average Objective).

May Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBK4(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for September(Month). Compared to August's 24.02(Prev Close), the market ended September at 25.26(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 24.03(Month Low) to 26.38(Month High).

In comparing the August/September closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in September than August in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SBK went on to exceed the September high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBK should exceed 26.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of November. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 29.24(Average Objective).
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