MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for November Feeder Cattle(CME) as of Sep 29, 2023 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct |
| Tested Years | 30 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 20 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 26 | 32 | 22 | 25 | 20 | |
| Exceeded High | 20 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 18 | 20 | 8 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 100% | 88% | 69% | 95% | 78% | 85% | 100% | 84% | 82% | 80% | 40% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 4.74% | 4.37% | 6.86% | 5.95% | 5.66% | 5.38% | 5.55% | 4.51% | 4.44% | 3.14% | 1.86% | |
| Max Increase | 14.30% | 16.22% | 23.60% | 23.93% | 16.07% | 13.13% | 10.86% | 10.24% | 16.13% | 10.84% | 4.51% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 7 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -0.72% | -0.73% | -1.01% | -1.07% | -1.29% | -1.86% | -1.27% | -1.77% | -1.34% | -1.01% | -0.75% | |
| Max Decline | -3.05% | -3.23% | -5.05% | -5.29% | -4.77% | -6.17% | -3.99% | -6.29% | -7.19% | -2.90% | -1.65% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
