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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Mar 31, 2023
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt
Cond
Month		 Prev
Close		 Month
High		 Month
Low		 Month
Close		 Pct
Range		 Total
Years		 Cond
Years		 Action
Years
Pct		 Scenario
Objective		 Average
Objective		 Last
Price
#DJ Higher Mar 32657.00 33572.00 31430.00 33274.00 86% 45 30 28 93% 33572.00 35471.69 33274.00
#UTIL Higher Mar 907.00 939.80 877.50 939.80 100% 45 27 27 100% 939.80 981.70 939.80
#OEX Higher Mar 1777.55 1875.20 1718.30 1874.40 99% 45 29 25 86% 1875.20 1982.50 1874.40
#SSNI Higher Mar 27446 28735 26633 28041 67% 45 26 23 88% 28735 30516 28041
YMM3 Higher Mar 32948 33855 31640 33460 82% 24 15 15 100% 33855 35754 33460
BPM3 Higher Mar 120.81 124.42 118.28 123.55 86% 45 20 17 85% 124.42 128.58 123.55
EUM3 Higher Mar 106.52 109.84 105.81 109.04 80% 24 10 9 90% 109.84 115.05 109.04
DXM3 Lower Mar 104.475 105.490 101.555 102.185 16% 37 17 16 94% 101.555 98.021 102.185
RBM3 Higher Mar 259.73 275.83 232.61 262.80 70% 37 28 25 89% 275.83 311.29 262.80
RBN3 Higher Mar 255.96 271.15 228.35 257.35 68% 37 28 24 86% 271.15 302.15 257.35
NGM3 Lower Mar 3.036 3.336 2.321 2.465 14% 32 12 11 92% 2.321 2.114 2.465
NGN3 Lower Mar 3.212 3.496 2.600 2.732 15% 32 11 10 91% 2.600 2.354 2.732
SQ3 Lower Mar 1437.25 1488.75 1339.50 1421.75 55% 45 21 18 86% 1339.50 1270.93 1421.75
CN3 Higher Mar 622.25 638.75 597.00 636.00 93% 45 25 24 96% 638.75 685.25 636.00
CU3 Lower Mar 582.50 586.50 554.50 577.25 71% 45 18 18 100% 554.50 518.52 577.25
KWN3 Higher Mar 806.50 880.75 763.75 861.75 84% 45 20 17 85% 880.75 969.97 861.75
KWU3 Higher Mar 809.75 875.75 766.25 858.00 84% 45 19 17 89% 875.75 962.73 858.00
ON3 Higher Mar 338.00 373.25 323.50 361.25 76% 45 19 16 84% 373.25 410.31 361.25
OU3 Higher Mar 343.00 370.00 330.75 358.50 71% 45 19 16 84% 370.00 405.59 358.50
LCQ3 Higher Mar 160.250 161.485 154.600 161.430 99% 45 21 18 86% 161.485 171.278 161.430
FCK3 Higher Mar 199.635 207.030 196.650 205.250 83% 45 20 18 90% 207.030 217.683 205.250
FCQ3 Higher Mar 213.180 222.885 211.480 221.980 92% 45 19 17 89% 222.885 234.712 221.980
KCN3 Lower Mar 184.90 185.05 165.55 169.70 21% 45 24 21 88% 165.55 151.90 169.70
SBV3 Higher Mar 19.47 21.55 19.43 21.47 96% 45 18 17 94% 21.55 23.34 21.47

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DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 32657.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 33274.00(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 31430.00(Month Low) to 33572.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in March than February in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #DJ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 33572.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 35471.69(Average Objective).

Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 907.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 939.80(Month Close), that being 100%(Pct Range) off of 877.50(Month Low) to 939.80(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in March than February in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #UTIL went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 939.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 981.70(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1777.55(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1874.40(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 1718.30(Month Low) to 1875.20(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in March than February in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #OEX went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 1875.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 1982.50(Average Objective).

Nikkei 225 Index
The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 27446(Prev Close), the market ended March at 28041(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 26633(Month Low) to 28735(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SSNI went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 28735(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 30516(Average Objective).

June E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT)
The YMM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 32948(Prev Close), the market ended March at 33460(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 31640(Month Low) to 33855(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, YMM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the YMM should exceed 33855(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 35754(Average Objective).

June British Pound(CME)
The BPM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 120.81(Prev Close), the market ended March at 123.55(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 118.28(Month Low) to 124.42(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June British Pound(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, BPM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPM should exceed 124.42(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 128.58(Average Objective).

June EuroFX(CME)
The EUM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 106.52(Prev Close), the market ended March at 109.04(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 105.81(Month Low) to 109.84(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, EUM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUM should exceed 109.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 115.05(Average Objective).

June US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXM3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 104.475(Prev Close), the market ended March at 102.185(Month Close), that being 16%(Pct Range) off of 101.555(Month Low) to 105.490(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, DXM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should penetrate 101.555(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 98.021(Average Objective).

June RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBM3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 259.73(Prev Close), the market ended March at 262.80(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 232.61(Month Low) to 275.83(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, RBM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBM should exceed 275.83(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 311.29(Average Objective).

July RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 255.96(Prev Close), the market ended March at 257.35(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 228.35(Month Low) to 271.15(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, RBN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBN should exceed 271.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 302.15(Average Objective).

June Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGM3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 3.036(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.465(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 2.321(Month Low) to 3.336(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, NGM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGM should penetrate 2.321(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.114(Average Objective).

July Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGN3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 3.212(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2.732(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 2.600(Month Low) to 3.496(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in March than February in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, NGN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should penetrate 2.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 2.354(Average Objective).

August Soybeans(CBOT)
The SQ3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 1437.25(Prev Close), the market ended March at 1421.75(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 1339.50(Month Low) to 1488.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybeans(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SQ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SQ should penetrate 1339.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1270.93(Average Objective).

July Corn(CBOT)
The CN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 622.25(Prev Close), the market ended March at 636.00(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 597.00(Month Low) to 638.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, CN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should exceed 638.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 685.25(Average Objective).

September Corn(CBOT)
The CU3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 582.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 577.25(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 554.50(Month Low) to 586.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 554.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 518.52(Average Objective).

July Wheat(KCBT)
The KWN3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 806.50(Prev Close), the market ended March at 861.75(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 763.75(Month Low) to 880.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KWN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should exceed 880.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 969.97(Average Objective).

September Wheat(KCBT)
The KWU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 809.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 858.00(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 766.25(Month Low) to 875.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KWU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should exceed 875.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 962.73(Average Objective).

July Oats(CBOT)
The ON3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 338.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 361.25(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 323.50(Month Low) to 373.25(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, ON went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should exceed 373.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 410.31(Average Objective).

September Oats(CBOT)
The OU3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 343.00(Prev Close), the market ended March at 358.50(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 330.75(Month Low) to 370.00(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Oats(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, OU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OU should exceed 370.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 405.59(Average Objective).

August Live Cattle(CME)
The LCQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 160.250(Prev Close), the market ended March at 161.430(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 154.600(Month Low) to 161.485(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LCQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 161.485(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 171.278(Average Objective).

May Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCK3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 199.635(Prev Close), the market ended March at 205.250(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 196.650(Month Low) to 207.030(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, FCK went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 207.030(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 217.683(Average Objective).

August Feeder Cattle(CME)
The FCQ3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 213.180(Prev Close), the market ended March at 221.980(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 211.480(Month Low) to 222.885(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, FCQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCQ should exceed 222.885(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 234.712(Average Objective).

July Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCN3(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 184.90(Prev Close), the market ended March at 169.70(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 165.55(Month Low) to 185.05(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, KCN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 165.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 151.90(Average Objective).

October Sugar #11(ICE)
The SBV3(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 19.47(Prev Close), the market ended March at 21.47(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 19.43(Month Low) to 21.55(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, SBV went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBV should exceed 21.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 23.34(Average Objective).