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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for DJIA Index as of Aug 02, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   33 31 27 27 30 31 27 23 31 25 17
Exceeded High   30 29 24 26 28 29 23 21 25 21 14
Scenario Percentage   91% 94% 89% 96% 93% 94% 85% 91% 81% 84% 82%
Avg Max Increase   5.24% 5.97% 5.58% 5.36% 5.64% 4.50% 5.02% 5.30% 4.13% 4.24% 3.79%
Max Increase   15.46% 11.62% 17.19% 10.75% 13.74% 13.28% 12.99% 13.15% 10.49% 16.09% 10.47%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 19 16 16 18 14 21 15 16 14 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.11% -1.80% -1.13% -1.31% -1.50% -1.76% -1.83% -1.45% -1.63% -1.85% -1.15%
Max Decline   -9.87% -6.68% -4.41% -5.49% -5.55% -7.19% -4.86% -4.42% -5.45% -4.94% -4.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 10 7 9 10 7 14 10 10 10 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes    
Action   Yes   No   Yes Yes   Yes Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   12 14 18 18 15 14 18 22 14 20 28
Penetrated Low   5 9 11 14 9 8 12 15 12 16 19
Scenario Percentage   42% 64% 61% 78% 60% 57% 67% 68% 86% 80% 68%
Avg Max Decline   5.27% 8.73% 9.79% 7.80% 3.04% 4.98% 6.33% 6.41% 7.67% 6.79% 7.43%
Max Decline   12.99% 19.85% 35.54% 28.32% 4.89% 10.25% 24.10% 18.50% 16.68% 18.97% 37.75%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 17 10 12 11 15 13 16 17 14 16
Avg Max Increase   -2.69% -2.03% -1.52% -1.88% -1.56% -1.81% -1.19% -1.98% -2.44% -2.66% -2.43%
Max Increase   -7.16% -6.32% -4.65% -6.64% -6.39% -4.09% -4.51% -4.57% -8.56% -7.37% -6.02%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 6 4 5 8 5 7 11 9 12 6
2023 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes     Yes     Yes Yes
Action     No   Yes     No     Yes Yes
High 32890 34590 34702 34342 34335 33572 34105 34258 34589 35645 35679 34978
Low 28663 31731 32573 32812 32636 31430 33236 32587 32707 33706 34029 33306
Close/Last 32733 34590 33147 34086 32657 33274 34098 32908 34408 35560 34722 33508

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