MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jul 31, 2018

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#UTIL

Higher

Jul

711.65

731.25

700.10

724.25

78%

89%

731.25

759.88

724.25

#OEX

Higher

Jul

539.14

606.21

530.25

586.40

74%

86%

606.21

631.41

586.40

#NDX

Higher

Jul

487.20

957.80

415.55

678.40

48%

85%

957.80

1006.44

678.40

#MID

Higher

Jul

1951.65

2015.60

1936.25

1984.50

61%

94%

2015.60

2105.41

1984.50

#VLE

Higher

Jul

6311.10

6505.30

6258.20

6451.40

78%

94%

6505.30

6782.06

6451.40

#SP

Higher

Jul

2718.35

2848.05

2698.95

2816.30

79%

90%

2848.05

2962.02

2816.30

SPZ8

Higher

Jul

2724.90

2851.90

2703.90

2821.20

79%

94%

2851.90

2947.10

2821.20

EUZ8

Higher

Jul

118.22

119.36

117.09

118.23

50%

100%

119.36

122.75

118.23

ADZ8

Higher

Jul

74.03

74.85

73.22

74.43

74%

93%

74.85

77.00

74.43

DXZ8

Lower

Jul

93.915

95.000

93.045

93.865

42%

94%

93.045

90.647

93.865

PAZ8

Lower

Jul

945.60

957.60

850.60

928.60

73%

87%

850.60

746.91

928.60

HGZ8

Lower

Jul

298.80

299.45

269.70

285.30

52%

92%

269.70

244.98

285.30

ITCOG9

Lower

Jul

77.20

78.02

71.05

74.26

46%

89%

71.05

64.46

74.26

NGZ8

Lower

Jul

3.055

3.050

2.854

2.952

50%

87%

2.854

2.558

2.952

NGF9

Lower

Jul

3.135

3.140

2.939

3.038

49%

88%

2.939

2.647

3.038

CBG9

Lower

Jul

77.20

78.02

71.05

74.26

46%

89%

71.05

64.46

74.26

LCV8

Lower

Jul

110.030

112.250

105.480

109.300

56%

94%

105.480

98.735

109.300

FCX8

Higher

Jul

149.750

155.400

148.430

150.135

24%

86%

155.400

162.261

150.135

HEG9

Lower

Jul

59.750

62.200

51.950

53.800

18%

84%

51.950

47.862

53.800

CCZ8

Lower

Jul

2531

2607

2203

2220

85%

2203

2035

2220

CCH9

Lower

Jul

2531

2596

2228

2242

90%

2228

2069

2242

Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 711.65(Prev Close), the market ended July at 724.25(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 700.10(Month Low) to 731.25(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in July than June in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #UTIL went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 731.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 759.88(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 539.14(Prev Close), the market ended July at 586.40(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 530.25(Month Low) to 606.21(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #OEX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 606.21(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 631.41(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 487.20(Prev Close), the market ended July at 678.40(Month Close), that being 48%(Pct Range) off of 415.55(Month Low) to 957.80(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #NDX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 957.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1006.44(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1951.65(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1984.50(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 1936.25(Month Low) to 2015.60(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #MID went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 2015.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2105.41(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 6311.10(Prev Close), the market ended July at 6451.40(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 6258.20(Month Low) to 6505.30(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in July than June in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #VLE went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 6505.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 6782.06(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2718.35(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2816.30(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 2698.95(Month Low) to 2848.05(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2848.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 2962.02(Average Objective).
December S & P 500(CME): The SPZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2724.90(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2821.20(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 2703.90(Month Low) to 2851.90(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, SPZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should exceed 2851.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2947.10(Average Objective).
December EuroFX(CME): The EUZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 118.22(Prev Close), the market ended July at 118.23(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 117.09(Month Low) to 119.36(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 19 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, EUZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUZ should exceed 119.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 122.75(Average Objective).
December Australian Dollar(CME): The ADZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 74.03(Prev Close), the market ended July at 74.43(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 73.22(Month Low) to 74.85(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ADZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 74.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 77.00(Average Objective).
December US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 93.915(Prev Close), the market ended July at 93.865(Month Close), that being 42%(Pct Range) off of 93.045(Month Low) to 95.000(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, DXZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 93.045(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 90.647(Average Objective).
December Palladium(NYMEX): The PAZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 945.60(Prev Close), the market ended July at 928.60(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 850.60(Month Low) to 957.60(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed lower in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, PAZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should penetrate 850.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 746.91(Average Objective).
December Copper(CMX): The HGZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 298.80(Prev Close), the market ended July at 285.30(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 269.70(Month Low) to 299.45(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Copper(CMX) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, HGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGZ should penetrate 269.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 244.98(Average Objective).
February Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The ITCOG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 77.20(Prev Close), the market ended July at 74.26(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 71.05(Month Low) to 78.02(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, ITCOG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOG should penetrate 71.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 64.46(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.055(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2.952(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 2.854(Month Low) to 3.050(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 2.854(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.558(Average Objective).
January Natural Gas(NYM): The NGF9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 3.135(Prev Close), the market ended July at 3.038(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 2.939(Month Low) to 3.140(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGF went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 2.939(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2.647(Average Objective).
February Brent Crude Oil(ICE): The CBG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 77.20(Prev Close), the market ended July at 74.26(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 71.05(Month Low) to 78.02(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, CBG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBG should penetrate 71.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 64.46(Average Objective).
October Live Cattle(CME): The LCV8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 110.030(Prev Close), the market ended July at 109.300(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 105.480(Month Low) to 112.250(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, LCV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should penetrate 105.480(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 98.735(Average Objective).
November Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCX8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 149.750(Prev Close), the market ended July at 150.135(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 148.430(Month Low) to 155.400(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, FCX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCX should exceed 155.400(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 162.261(Average Objective).
February Lean Hogs(CME): The HEG9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 59.750(Prev Close), the market ended July at 53.800(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 51.950(Month Low) to 62.200(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HEG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEG should penetrate 51.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 47.862(Average Objective).
December Cocoa(ICE): The CCZ8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2531(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2220(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 2203(Month Low) to 2607(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CCZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2203(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 2035(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH9(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2531(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2242(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 2228(Month Low) to 2596(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CCH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 2228(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 2069(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash