MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Dec 31, 2011

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Dec

12046.00

12328.00

11735.00

12218.00

81%

93%

12328.00

12993.36

12218.00

#TRAN

Higher

Dec

4946.20

5077.40

4750.10

5019.70

82%

93%

5077.40

5530.98

5019.70

#OEX

Higher

Dec

561.96

575.81

546.10

570.79

83%

100%

575.81

591.23

570.79

#RUT

Higher

Dec

737.40

753.20

705.80

740.90

74%

96%

753.20

805.76

740.90

#MID

Lower

Dec

883.80

901.45

838.30

879.15

65%

86%

838.30

777.73

879.15

#VLE

Higher

Dec

2690.80

2746.30

2566.60

2695.60

72%

96%

2746.30

2920.70

2695.60

#SSNI

Higher

Dec

8435

8730

8272

8455

40%

90%

8730

9202

8455

#SP

Higher

Dec

1246.95

1269.35

1202.35

1257.60

82%

94%

1269.35

1329.43

1257.60

SPH2

Higher

Dec

1240.10

1264.30

1195.50

1252.60

83%

100%

1264.30

1325.63

1252.60

NDH2

Lower

Dec

2290.50

2335.50

2203.00

2274.50

54%

88%

2203.00

2017.98

2274.50

USH2

Higher

Dec

141~120

146~110

139~240

144~260

77%

95%

146~110

151~108

144~260

TYH2

Higher

Dec

129~110

131~140

128~200

131~040

89%

131~140

135~032

131~040

SFH2

Lower

Dec

109.73

110.47

105.01

106.70

31%

94%

105.01

98.85

106.70

BPH2

Lower

Dec

156.84

157.61

153.50

155.00

36%

87%

153.50

146.52

155.00

CDH2

Higher

Dec

97.81

99.23

95.73

98.21

71%

89%

99.23

101.00

98.21

DXH2

Higher

Dec

78.890

81.415

78.520

80.522

69%

90%

81.415

83.623

80.522

GCJ2

Lower

Dec

1753.1

1769.7

1526.2

1569.4

18%

89%

1526.2

1429.4

1569.4

GCM2

Lower

Dec

1755.4

1772.0

1528.6

1571.6

18%

88%

1528.6

1428.5

1571.6

HOJ2

Lower

Dec

300.53

306.12

277.22

288.66

40%

93%

277.22

241.42

288.66

RBJ2

Higher

Dec

274.02

283.46

262.43

276.81

68%

100%

283.46

310.54

276.81

RBK2

Higher

Dec

274.01

282.25

262.30

276.26

70%

100%

282.25

310.99

276.26

NGJ2

Lower

Dec

3.616

3.740

3.050

3.079

85%

3.050

2.601

3.079

NGK2

Lower

Dec

3.658

3.777

3.101

3.131

85%

3.101

2.709

3.131

SH2

Higher

Dec

1141.00

1219.00

1104.50

1207.75

90%

1219.00

1295.54

1207.75

SK2

Higher

Dec

1151.00

1227.75

1115.50

1217.50

91%

86%

1227.75

1318.63

1217.50

FCH2

Higher

Dec

148.180

150.800

142.930

148.800

75%

95%

150.800

158.970

148.800

FCK2

Higher

Dec

150.000

152.150

145.135

151.135

86%

100%

152.150

159.391

151.135

JOH2

Lower

Dec

172.35

174.10

160.00

169.00

64%

93%

160.00

143.41

169.00

JOK2

Lower

Dec

171.10

173.00

160.00

168.20

63%

93%

160.00

143.00

168.20

KCH2

Lower

Dec

236.90

238.95

212.35

226.85

55%

87%

212.35

193.40

226.85

KCK2

Lower

Dec

239.15

240.80

215.25

229.65

56%

93%

215.25

198.80

229.65

CCH2

Lower

Dec

2305

2324

1983

2109

37%

84%

1983

1802

2109

LBH2

Higher

Dec

243.0

272.9

235.0

261.1

69%

88%

272.9

301.2

261.1

LBK2

Higher

Dec

255.4

287.0

252.1

275.6

67%

96%

287.0

311.4

275.6

CTK2

Higher

Dec

90.39

93.54

84.23

91.68

80%

85%

93.54

101.63

91.68

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 12046.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 12218.00(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 11735.00(Month Low) to 12328.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in December than November in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #DJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12328.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 12993.36(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 4946.20(Prev Close), the market ended December at 5019.70(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 4750.10(Month Low) to 5077.40(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, the #TRAN went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 5077.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 5530.98(Average Objective).
S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 561.96(Prev Close), the market ended December at 570.79(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 546.10(Month Low) to 575.81(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 9 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in December than November in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, the #OEX went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 575.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 591.23(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 737.40(Prev Close), the market ended December at 740.90(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 705.80(Month Low) to 753.20(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #RUT went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 753.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 805.76(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 883.80(Prev Close), the market ended December at 879.15(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 838.30(Month Low) to 901.45(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed lower in December than November in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, the #MID went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 6 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should penetrate 838.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 6 years) a potential move toward 777.73(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2690.80(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2695.60(Month Close), that being 72%(Pct Range) off of 2566.60(Month Low) to 2746.30(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #VLE went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2746.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 2920.70(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 8435(Prev Close), the market ended December at 8455(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 8272(Month Low) to 8730(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SSNI went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 8730(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 9202(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1246.95(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1257.60(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 1202.35(Month Low) to 1269.35(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in December than November in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, the #SP went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 30 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1269.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 30 years) a potential move toward 1329.43(Average Objective).
March S & P 500(CME): The SPH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1240.10(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1252.60(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 1195.50(Month Low) to 1264.30(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SPH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPH should exceed 1264.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1325.63(Average Objective).
March NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2290.50(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2274.50(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 2203.00(Month Low) to 2335.50(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, NDH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should penetrate 2203.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 2017.98(Average Objective).
March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 141~120(Prev Close), the market ended December at 144~260(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 139~240(Month Low) to 146~110(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, USH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USH should exceed 146~110(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 151~108(Average Objective).
March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 129~110(Prev Close), the market ended December at 131~040(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 128~200(Month Low) to 131~140(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, TYH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYH should exceed 131~140(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 135~032(Average Objective).
March Swiss Franc(CME): The SFH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 109.73(Prev Close), the market ended December at 106.70(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 105.01(Month Low) to 110.47(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, SFH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should penetrate 105.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 98.85(Average Objective).
March British Pound(CME): The BPH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 156.84(Prev Close), the market ended December at 155.00(Month Close), that being 36%(Pct Range) off of 153.50(Month Low) to 157.61(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March British Pound(CME) also closed lower in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, BPH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPH should penetrate 153.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 146.52(Average Objective).
March Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 97.81(Prev Close), the market ended December at 98.21(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 95.73(Month Low) to 99.23(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CDH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDH should exceed 99.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 101.00(Average Objective).
March US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 78.890(Prev Close), the market ended December at 80.522(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 78.520(Month Low) to 81.415(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, DXH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXH should exceed 81.415(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 83.623(Average Objective).
April Gold(CMX): The GCJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1753.1(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1569.4(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 1526.2(Month Low) to 1769.7(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gold(CMX) also closed lower in December than November in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, GCJ went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCJ should penetrate 1526.2(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1429.4(Average Objective).
June Gold(CMX): The GCM2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1755.4(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1571.6(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 1528.6(Month Low) to 1772.0(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Gold(CMX) also closed lower in December than November in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, GCM went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCM should penetrate 1528.6(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 1428.5(Average Objective).
April Heating Oil(NYM): The HOJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 300.53(Prev Close), the market ended December at 288.66(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 277.22(Month Low) to 306.12(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Heating Oil(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HOJ went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOJ should penetrate 277.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 241.42(Average Objective).
April Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBJ2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 274.02(Prev Close), the market ended December at 276.81(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 262.43(Month Low) to 283.46(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RBJ went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBJ should exceed 283.46(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 310.54(Average Objective).
May Gasoline(NYMEX): The RBK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 274.01(Prev Close), the market ended December at 276.26(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 262.30(Month Low) to 282.25(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Gasoline(NYMEX) also closed higher in December than November in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RBK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBK should exceed 282.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 310.99(Average Objective).
April Natural Gas(NYM): The NGJ2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 3.616(Prev Close), the market ended December at 3.079(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 3.050(Month Low) to 3.740(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGJ went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGJ should penetrate 3.050(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.601(Average Objective).
May Natural Gas(NYM): The NGK2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 3.658(Prev Close), the market ended December at 3.131(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 3.101(Month Low) to 3.777(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in December than November in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, NGK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGK should penetrate 3.101(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 2.709(Average Objective).
March Soybeans(CBOT): The SH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1141.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1207.75(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 1104.50(Month Low) to 1219.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, SH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SH should exceed 1219.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1295.54(Average Objective).
May Soybeans(CBOT): The SK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 1151.00(Prev Close), the market ended December at 1217.50(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1115.50(Month Low) to 1227.75(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybeans(CBOT) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SK should exceed 1227.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 1318.63(Average Objective).
March Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 148.180(Prev Close), the market ended December at 148.800(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 142.930(Month Low) to 150.800(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, FCH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCH should exceed 150.800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 158.970(Average Objective).
May Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 150.000(Prev Close), the market ended December at 151.135(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 145.135(Month Low) to 152.150(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, FCK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 152.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 159.391(Average Objective).
March Orange Juice(ICE): The JOH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 172.35(Prev Close), the market ended December at 169.00(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 160.00(Month Low) to 174.10(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, JOH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOH should penetrate 160.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 143.41(Average Objective).
May Orange Juice(ICE): The JOK2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 171.10(Prev Close), the market ended December at 168.20(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 160.00(Month Low) to 173.00(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, JOK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOK should penetrate 160.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 143.00(Average Objective).
March Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 236.90(Prev Close), the market ended December at 226.85(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 212.35(Month Low) to 238.95(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KCH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 212.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 193.40(Average Objective).
May Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCK2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 239.15(Prev Close), the market ended December at 229.65(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 215.25(Month Low) to 240.80(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KCK went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 215.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 198.80(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 2305(Prev Close), the market ended December at 2109(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 1983(Month Low) to 2324(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in December than November in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CCH went on to penetrate the December low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 1983(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1802(Average Objective).
March Lumber(CME): The LBH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 243.0(Prev Close), the market ended December at 261.1(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 235.0(Month Low) to 272.9(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LBH went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 272.9(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 301.2(Average Objective).
May Lumber(CME): The LBK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 255.4(Prev Close), the market ended December at 275.6(Month Close), that being 67%(Pct Range) off of 252.1(Month Low) to 287.0(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lumber(CME) also closed higher in December than November in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LBK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBK should exceed 287.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 311.4(Average Objective).
May Cotton(ICE): The CTK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for December(Month). Compared to November's 90.39(Prev Close), the market ended December at 91.68(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 84.23(Month Low) to 93.54(Month High).

In comparing the November/December closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in December than November in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, CTK went on to exceed the December high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTK should exceed 93.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 101.63(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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