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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 38
Closed Higher   18 11 18 19 25 16 20 18 16 19 13
Exceeded High   13 7 14 16 17 13 17 15 11 11 8
Scenario Percentage   72% 64% 78% 84% 68% 81% 85% 83% 69% 58% 62%
Avg Max Increase   6.32% 5.71% 12.94% 12.05% 9.54% 7.82% 11.08% 12.45% 6.01% 4.27% 5.18%
Max Increase   26.63% 13.22% 41.74% 36.12% 22.65% 17.89% 102.90% 60.45% 11.41% 7.67% 12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase   13 16 17 19 15 11 15 15 16 14 20
Avg Max Decline   -1.19% -0.92% -1.85% -0.65% -1.74% -1.52% -2.25% -1.83% -2.59% -1.30% -0.96%
Max Decline   -4.91% -4.21% -4.29% -3.49% -6.30% -6.01% -9.36% -9.23% -7.12% -3.05% -1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 13 7 3 8 2 8 6 7 5 5
2012 Contract Condition       Yes Yes   Yes Yes   Yes    
Action       Yes Yes   Yes No   Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 38
Closed Lower   19 26 19 18 12 21 17 19 22 19 25
Penetrated Low   16 15 14 12 7 16 13 16 17 17 18
Scenario Percentage   84% 58% 74% 67% 58% 76% 76% 84% 77% 89% 72%
Avg Max Decline   6.42% 5.40% 5.37% 8.24% 5.05% 5.57% 7.27% 7.11% 5.17% 6.58% 3.34%
Max Decline   19.63% 21.13% 19.58% 20.91% 8.36% 14.95% 24.92% 21.29% 20.24% 30.36% 9.56%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 14 15 21 18 12 15 15 14 12 10
Avg Max Increase   -1.62% -1.31% -0.71% -1.48% -1.09% -2.21% -1.58% -0.91% -2.29% -1.45% -0.57%
Max Increase   -4.67% -5.30% -5.00% -11.21% -2.41% -7.69% -5.91% -6.30% -12.86% -5.45% -2.49%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 8 7 13 13 9 9 6 9 8 3
2012 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes     Yes   Yes Yes
Action   No Yes     No     No   Yes Yes
High 1565.0 1570.4 1559.4 1635.6 1918.1 1925.0 1756.4 1808.0 1769.7 1750.6 1792.7 1727.3
Low 1426.8 1478.0 1498.0 1487.8 1615.7 1553.4 1600.9 1677.1 1526.2 1572.3 1688.4 1627.5
Close/Last 1563.0 1542.0 1507.9 1634.0 1834.8 1625.6 1728.9 1753.1 1569.4 1740.4 1711.3 1669.3

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