MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Oct 31, 2011

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Oct

10913.00

12284.00

10404.00

11955.00

82%

88%

12284.00

12948.24

11955.00

#TRAN

Higher

Oct

4189.40

5067.70

3950.70

4892.60

84%

89%

5067.70

5444.40

4892.60

#UTIL

Higher

Oct

433.38

459.94

411.54

450.14

80%

92%

459.94

482.11

450.14

#NDX

Higher

Oct

2139.20

2412.50

2042.90

2360.10

86%

94%

2412.50

2666.11

2360.10

#RUT

Higher

Oct

644.15

769.45

601.70

741.05

83%

88%

769.45

831.48

741.05

#MID

Higher

Oct

781.25

920.25

731.60

887.95

83%

84%

920.25

986.12

887.95

#SP

Higher

Oct

1131.40

1292.65

1074.75

1253.30

82%

88%

1292.65

1368.16

1253.30

NDH2

Higher

Oct

2130.80

2403.00

2040.00

2351.50

86%

90%

2403.00

2733.31

2351.50

JYH2

Lower

Oct

130.08

132.79

126.09

128.45

35%

89%

126.09

121.73

128.45

ADH2

Higher

Oct

95.22

105.69

92.33

104.25

89%

93%

105.69

109.94

104.25

HGK2

Higher

Oct

318.50

375.60

305.00

366.05

86%

84%

375.60

411.92

366.05

SMH2

Higher

Oct

314.70

335.10

307.00

320.80

49%

86%

335.10

360.99

320.80

SMK2

Higher

Oct

317.50

336.00

310.00

322.90

50%

86%

336.00

361.13

322.90

CCH2

Higher

Oct

2648

2791

2563

2723

70%

93%

2791

3037

2723

CCK2

Higher

Oct

2663

2800

2578

2735

71%

100%

2800

3040

2735

LBH2

Higher

Oct

250.0

264.4

246.0

257.7

64%

88%

264.4

287.1

257.7

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 10913.00(Prev Close), the market ended October at 11955.00(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 10404.00(Month Low) to 12284.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 12284.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 12948.24(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Transportation: The #TRAN(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 4189.40(Prev Close), the market ended October at 4892.60(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 3950.70(Month Low) to 5067.70(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Transportation also closed higher in October than September in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, the #TRAN went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #TRAN should exceed 5067.70(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 5444.40(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 433.38(Prev Close), the market ended October at 450.14(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 411.54(Month Low) to 459.94(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in October than September in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #UTIL went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 459.94(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 482.11(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2139.20(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2360.10(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 2042.90(Month Low) to 2412.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in October than September in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #NDX went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 2412.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2666.11(Average Objective).
Russell 2000 Index: The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 644.15(Prev Close), the market ended October at 741.05(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 601.70(Month Low) to 769.45(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #RUT went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 769.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 831.48(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 781.25(Prev Close), the market ended October at 887.95(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 731.60(Month Low) to 920.25(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #MID went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 920.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 986.12(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 1131.40(Prev Close), the market ended October at 1253.30(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 1074.75(Month Low) to 1292.65(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in October than September in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #SP went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1292.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1368.16(Average Objective).
March NASDAQ 100(CME): The NDH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2130.80(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2351.50(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 2040.00(Month Low) to 2403.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 15 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NASDAQ 100(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, NDH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NDH should exceed 2403.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 2733.31(Average Objective).
March Japanese Yen(CME): The JYH2(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 130.08(Prev Close), the market ended October at 128.45(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 126.09(Month Low) to 132.79(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 126.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 121.73(Average Objective).
March Australian Dollar(CME): The ADH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 95.22(Prev Close), the market ended October at 104.25(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 92.33(Month Low) to 105.69(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ADH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADH should exceed 105.69(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 109.94(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 318.50(Prev Close), the market ended October at 366.05(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 305.00(Month Low) to 375.60(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, HGK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 375.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 411.92(Average Objective).
March Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 314.70(Prev Close), the market ended October at 320.80(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 307.00(Month Low) to 335.10(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMH should exceed 335.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 360.99(Average Objective).
May Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 317.50(Prev Close), the market ended October at 322.90(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 310.00(Month Low) to 336.00(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed higher in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should exceed 336.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 361.13(Average Objective).
March Cocoa(ICE): The CCH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2648(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2723(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 2563(Month Low) to 2791(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, CCH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should exceed 2791(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3037(Average Objective).
May Cocoa(ICE): The CCK2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 2663(Prev Close), the market ended October at 2735(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 2578(Month Low) to 2800(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cocoa(ICE) also closed higher in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CCK went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCK should exceed 2800(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 3040(Average Objective).
March Lumber(CME): The LBH2(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 250.0(Prev Close), the market ended October at 257.7(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 246.0(Month Low) to 264.4(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Lumber(CME) also closed higher in October than September in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, LBH went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBH should exceed 264.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 287.1(Average Objective).

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