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ScenarioSM Study for NASDAQ 100 Index as of Dec 30, 2011 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
Tested Years | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | |
Closed Higher | 17 | 12 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | |
Exceeded High | 11 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 15 | |
Scenario Percentage | 65% | 92% | 82% | 93% | 94% | 83% | 92% | 87% | 100% | 94% | 94% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.61% | 10.20% | 9.57% | 9.39% | 6.10% | 8.81% | 7.01% | 7.92% | 9.86% | 12.85% | 6.64% | |
Max Increase | 15.29% | 15.72% | 17.94% | 16.40% | 22.95% | 12.91% | 10.16% | 19.67% | 30.90% | 42.20% | 26.42% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 22 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 14 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 13 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.94% | -2.32% | -2.75% | -3.00% | -2.18% | -1.70% | -3.16% | -2.83% | -4.22% | -2.11% | -1.04% | |
Max Decline | -12.33% | -7.29% | -9.12% | -8.23% | -4.49% | -5.58% | -7.48% | -6.44% | -20.96% | -5.04% | -3.62% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 4 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |
2011 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.