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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(CBOT) as of Dec 06, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 26 28 20 22 23 17 17 22 18 17
Exceeded High   16 21 20 14 18 18 12 13 16 10 8
Scenario Percentage   70% 81% 71% 70% 82% 78% 71% 76% 73% 56% 47%
Avg Max Increase   7.67% 6.99% 6.86% 9.60% 11.20% 8.97% 16.44% 12.47% 11.69% 14.46% 7.81%
Max Increase   15.97% 17.15% 18.88% 20.41% 63.12% 45.71% 39.39% 35.10% 28.77% 29.09% 15.01%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 15 18 18 15 14 15 16 14 14 6
Avg Max Decline   -3.60% -2.22% -2.67% -3.72% -2.97% -2.33% -4.65% -3.39% -2.91% -1.98% -1.49%
Max Decline   -7.47% -7.27% -11.64% -15.44% -9.19% -8.18% -14.54% -7.75% -9.71% -6.71% -6.22%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 8 12 12 12 10 10 10 6 6 2
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes  
Action       Yes Yes No       Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 19 17 25 23 22 27 28 23 27 27
Penetrated Low   16 12 13 21 16 19 23 21 19 23 16
Scenario Percentage   73% 63% 76% 84% 70% 86% 85% 75% 83% 85% 59%
Avg Max Decline   7.25% 8.31% 7.48% 6.61% 7.15% 8.19% 7.83% 7.78% 7.37% 8.82% 5.00%
Max Decline   35.92% 25.45% 18.04% 16.92% 13.30% 13.83% 18.54% 22.04% 15.90% 27.74% 10.33%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 21 14 17 20 17 18 18 18 10 6
Avg Max Increase   -1.46% -2.68% -2.31% -1.68% -2.45% -2.69% -2.47% -3.78% -4.10% -3.29% -1.21%
Max Increase   -4.71% -7.94% -8.73% -4.55% -8.23% -7.30% -6.17% -11.42% -26.19% -12.81% -3.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 11 5 8 16 11 12 11 9 9 1
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes     Yes
Action   Yes Yes       Yes Yes No     Not Yet
High 799.00 743.25 664.50 660.25 650.75 666.00 646.25 622.25 583.50 633.25 720.00 697.75
Low 673.00 649.75 610.25 611.75 586.00 615.75 593.00 556.50 537.75 550.00 593.50 538.00
Close/Last 727.25 654.50 612.25 619.25 624.75 645.75 610.25 579.25 575.75 603.25 678.50 553.50

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Central banks bought big, but the COT report waves a red flag. Seasonal gains await—Market players, read or regret! https://tinyurl.com/4antcta9