MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(CBOT) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	27	28	19	21	23	18	17	22	18	18
Exceeded High		17	22	19	13	18	18	13	13	16	11	8
Scenario Percentage		71%	81%	68%	68%	86%	78%	72%	76%	73%	61%	44%
Avg Max Increase		7.72%	6.89%	6.82%	9.83%	11.20%	8.97%	15.75%	12.47%	12.97%	16.10%	7.81%
Max Increase		15.97%	17.15%	18.88%	20.41%	63.12%	45.71%	39.39%	35.10%	39.86%	32.52%	15.01%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	19	19	15	14	16	16	14	15	6
Avg Max Decline		-3.49%	-2.16%	-2.52%	-3.90%	-2.97%	-2.33%	-4.48%	-3.39%	-2.85%	-1.83%	-1.49%
Max Decline		-7.47%	-7.27%	-11.64%	-15.44%	-9.19%	-8.18%	-14.54%	-7.75%	-9.71%	-6.71%	-6.22%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	9	12	13	12	10	10	10	6	5	2
2024 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	18	17	26	24	22	26	28	23	27	26
Penetrated Low		15	11	13	22	17	19	22	21	19	23	16
Scenario Percentage		71%	61%	76%	85%	71%	86%	85%	75%	83%	85%	62%
Avg Max Decline		7.29%	8.68%	7.48%	6.57%	6.89%	7.62%	7.87%	7.78%	7.37%	8.82%	5.00%
Max Decline		35.92%	25.45%	18.04%	16.92%	13.30%	13.83%	18.54%	22.04%	15.90%	27.74%	10.33%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	21	14	17	19	16	18	18	18	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.46%	-2.21%	-2.31%	-1.62%	-2.38%	-2.58%	-2.57%	-3.78%	-4.10%	-3.29%	-1.21%
Max Increase		-4.71%	-7.94%	-8.73%	-4.55%	-8.23%	-7.30%	-6.17%	-11.42%	-26.19%	-12.81%	-3.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	10	5	8	16	11	13	11	9	9	1
2024 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	799.00	743.25	664.50	660.25	650.75	666.00	646.25	622.25	583.50	633.25	697.00
Low	673.00	649.75	610.25	611.75	586.00	615.75	593.00	556.50	537.75	550.00	593.50
Close/Last	727.25	654.50	612.25	619.25	624.75	645.75	610.25	579.25	575.75	603.25	651.25