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ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
Tested Years | 44 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 16 | 23 | 14 | 27 | 19 | 26 | 20 | 17 | 24 | 24 | 18 | |
Exceeded High | 14 | 15 | 10 | 19 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 19 | 18 | 12 | |
Scenario Percentage | 88% | 65% | 71% | 70% | 63% | 65% | 80% | 82% | 79% | 75% | 67% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.26% | 11.24% | 11.62% | 12.15% | 19.79% | 12.15% | 13.62% | 23.20% | 20.10% | 13.86% | 7.38% | |
Max Increase | 14.78% | 27.27% | 22.02% | 81.96% | 67.95% | 32.58% | 67.34% | 115.36% | 95.03% | 58.37% | 22.51% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 15 | 16 | 13 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.77% | -2.30% | -1.78% | -3.18% | -1.97% | -3.25% | -2.73% | -0.96% | -2.03% | -3.24% | -1.33% | |
Max Decline | -9.18% | -9.91% | -4.31% | -13.99% | -10.68% | -11.59% | -10.90% | -2.86% | -9.74% | -14.24% | -3.66% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 4 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 2 | |
2008 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.