MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	23	14	27	19	26	20	17	24	24	18
Exceeded High		14	15	10	19	12	17	16	14	19	18	12
Scenario Percentage		88%	65%	71%	70%	63%	65%	80%	82%	79%	75%	67%
Avg Max Increase		8.26%	11.24%	11.62%	12.15%	19.79%	12.15%	13.62%	23.20%	20.10%	13.86%	7.38%
Max Increase		14.78%	27.27%	22.02%	81.96%	67.95%	32.58%	67.34%	115.36%	95.03%	58.37%	22.51%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	17	17	19	18	14	19	15	16	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.77%	-2.30%	-1.78%	-3.18%	-1.97%	-3.25%	-2.73%	-0.96%	-2.03%	-3.24%	-1.33%
Max Decline		-9.18%	-9.91%	-4.31%	-13.99%	-10.68%	-11.59%	-10.90%	-2.86%	-9.74%	-14.24%	-3.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	10	6	9	5	7	6	3	9	9	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		27	21	30	18	26	19	25	26	20	19	26
Penetrated Low		21	17	20	14	15	14	19	22	14	13	18
Scenario Percentage		78%	81%	67%	78%	58%	74%	76%	85%	70%	68%	69%
Avg Max Decline		9.54%	9.53%	6.22%	5.53%	7.92%	9.05%	7.44%	7.84%	9.37%	5.96%	6.21%
Max Decline		31.14%	25.10%	19.78%	14.46%	19.49%	25.03%	24.69%	33.78%	24.57%	17.27%	57.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		20	13	17	19	19	19	13	17	20	10	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.47%	-2.61%	-2.91%	-3.65%	-2.30%	-2.61%	-2.64%	-2.62%	-3.30%	-3.12%	-1.65%
Max Increase		-7.64%	-8.54%	-8.28%	-30.43%	-14.94%	-8.72%	-8.49%	-9.95%	-8.72%	-6.52%	-8.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	7	12	8	12	15	7	12	17	8	3
2008 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		No			Yes
High	1480.0	1465.8	1417.0	1433.0	1388.5	1356.0	1416.0	1480.5	1644.5	1508.0	1709.0	1992.5
Low	1310.0	1358.0	1328.0	1266.8	1291.0	1150.0	1234.0	1336.0	1396.5	1374.0	1491.0	1623.0
Close/Last	1399.0	1403.0	1395.5	1282.3	1337.0	1238.8	1409.8	1461.8	1416.5	1492.0	1699.5	1980.8