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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Oats(CBOT) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   37 43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   14 24 29 21 21 18 17 19 26 23 24
Exceeded High   10 22 22 14 13 14 11 15 20 18 13
Scenario Percentage   71% 92% 76% 67% 62% 78% 65% 79% 77% 78% 54%
Avg Max Increase   10.91% 10.23% 8.02% 8.07% 12.97% 11.74% 11.09% 11.22% 19.50% 16.88% 9.79%
Max Increase   30.78% 33.88% 20.81% 19.12% 39.32% 33.53% 27.06% 22.68% 137.82% 115.34% 16.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase   20 14 16 14 13 13 15 13 16 10 8
Avg Max Decline   -3.20% -1.72% -1.80% -1.62% -1.42% -1.80% -2.19% -2.31% -4.32% -3.55% -1.21%
Max Decline   -8.81% -6.49% -11.62% -6.45% -6.35% -4.30% -11.43% -7.63% -24.10% -11.86% -7.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 5 9 9 7 10 9 9 11 5 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes       Yes Yes  
Action   No       No       Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   37 43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 19 16 24 24 26 28 26 19 22 21
Penetrated Low   12 13 9 20 18 22 22 15 15 13 9
Scenario Percentage   55% 68% 56% 83% 75% 85% 79% 58% 79% 59% 43%
Avg Max Decline   9.19% 9.21% 8.55% 8.90% 8.18% 8.67% 9.49% 12.59% 10.09% 8.81% 5.22%
Max Decline   35.68% 34.36% 20.04% 16.86% 22.08% 20.60% 19.93% 24.67% 21.82% 17.26% 11.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 20 13 18 19 16 18 20 18 7 6
Avg Max Increase   -2.60% -3.76% -1.93% -2.42% -2.81% -2.45% -3.07% -3.37% -5.37% -4.23% -2.54%
Max Increase   -7.04% -9.40% -4.87% -7.40% -9.29% -9.06% -10.43% -8.75% -14.18% -11.57% -13.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase   12 16 7 15 10 5 10 11 14 6 2
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes      
Action     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes      
High 477.75 529.50 514.50 476.25 423.25 404.00 383.25 373.50 369.25 383.75 403.00  
Low 416.75 438.00 441.00 412.00 368.00 349.75 349.25 346.50 347.25 323.00 367.75  
Close/Last 469.50 518.00 465.75 432.00 380.00 383.00 373.50 367.50 352.25 369.50 401.75  

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