MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Oats(CBOT) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		37	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		14	24	29	21	21	18	17	19	26	23	24
Exceeded High		10	22	22	14	13	14	11	15	20	18	13
Scenario Percentage		71%	92%	76%	67%	62%	78%	65%	79%	77%	78%	54%
Avg Max Increase		10.91%	10.23%	8.02%	8.07%	12.97%	11.74%	11.09%	11.22%	19.50%	16.88%	9.79%
Max Increase		30.78%	33.88%	20.81%	19.12%	39.32%	33.53%	27.06%	22.68%	137.82%	115.34%	16.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	14	16	14	13	13	15	13	16	10	8
Avg Max Decline		-3.20%	-1.72%	-1.80%	-1.62%	-1.42%	-1.80%	-2.19%	-2.31%	-4.32%	-3.55%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-8.81%	-6.49%	-11.62%	-6.45%	-6.35%	-4.30%	-11.43%	-7.63%	-24.10%	-11.86%	-7.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	5	9	9	7	10	9	9	11	5	2
2024 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes				Yes
Action		No				No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		37	43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	19	16	24	24	26	28	26	19	22	21
Penetrated Low		12	13	9	20	18	22	22	15	15	13	9
Scenario Percentage		55%	68%	56%	83%	75%	85%	79%	58%	79%	59%	43%
Avg Max Decline		9.19%	9.21%	8.55%	8.90%	8.18%	8.67%	9.49%	12.59%	10.09%	8.81%	5.22%
Max Decline		35.68%	34.36%	20.04%	16.86%	22.08%	20.60%	19.93%	24.67%	21.82%	17.26%	11.35%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	20	13	18	19	16	18	20	18	7	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.60%	-3.76%	-1.93%	-2.42%	-2.81%	-2.45%	-3.07%	-3.37%	-5.37%	-4.23%	-2.54%
Max Increase		-7.04%	-9.40%	-4.87%	-7.40%	-9.29%	-9.06%	-10.43%	-8.75%	-14.18%	-11.57%	-13.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	16	7	15	10	5	10	11	14	6	2
2024 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	477.75	529.50	514.50	476.25	423.25	404.00	383.25	373.50	369.25	383.75	433.50
Low	416.75	438.00	441.00	412.00	368.00	349.75	349.25	346.50	347.25	323.00	365.00
Close/Last	469.50	518.00	465.75	432.00	380.00	383.00	373.50	367.50	352.25	369.50	365.00