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ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
Tested Years | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 23 | 17 | 26 | 22 | 17 | 19 | 28 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 21 | |
Exceeded High | 18 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 26 | 20 | 20 | 11 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 78% | 88% | 69% | 77% | 71% | 84% | 93% | 91% | 80% | 65% | 62% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.04% | 9.21% | 9.95% | 8.35% | 10.96% | 10.79% | 8.84% | 10.43% | 10.20% | 14.02% | 8.39% | |
Max Increase | 25.86% | 22.72% | 21.10% | 22.63% | 34.71% | 33.75% | 33.39% | 34.40% | 43.99% | 33.88% | 18.67% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 19 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 9 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.34% | -2.54% | -1.47% | -2.38% | -2.41% | -2.30% | -1.84% | -2.27% | -1.82% | -2.14% | -1.22% | |
Max Decline | -6.87% | -8.75% | -4.94% | -8.73% | -5.88% | -6.99% | -6.87% | -7.81% | -5.23% | -5.70% | -3.49% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
2019 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.