MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	17	26	22	17	19	28	22	25	17	21
Exceeded High		18	15	18	17	12	16	26	20	20	11	13
Scenario Percentage		78%	88%	69%	77%	71%	84%	93%	91%	80%	65%	62%
Avg Max Increase		7.04%	9.21%	9.95%	8.35%	10.96%	10.79%	8.84%	10.43%	10.20%	14.02%	8.39%
Max Increase		25.86%	22.72%	21.10%	22.63%	34.71%	33.75%	33.39%	34.40%	43.99%	33.88%	18.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	18	17	14	19	14	15	16	14	11	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.34%	-2.54%	-1.47%	-2.38%	-2.41%	-2.30%	-1.84%	-2.27%	-1.82%	-2.14%	-1.22%
Max Decline		-6.87%	-8.75%	-4.94%	-8.73%	-5.88%	-6.99%	-6.87%	-7.81%	-5.23%	-5.70%	-3.49%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	6	9	10	10	5	8	4	4	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes					Yes
Action			Yes				Yes					Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	28	19	23	28	25	17	23	20	27	24
Penetrated Low		15	23	17	17	23	13	13	19	19	24	16
Scenario Percentage		71%	82%	89%	74%	82%	52%	76%	83%	95%	89%	67%
Avg Max Decline		8.46%	8.31%	7.68%	7.56%	7.00%	8.86%	6.15%	6.33%	7.36%	6.51%	5.84%
Max Decline		41.85%	32.33%	17.99%	24.03%	29.58%	22.80%	15.92%	15.53%	14.82%	14.91%	20.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	15	22	17	16	13	16	16	18	12	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.13%	-1.66%	-4.55%	-2.88%	-3.14%	-2.19%	-2.41%	-3.47%	-2.17%	-2.61%	-1.16%
Max Increase		-10.83%	-7.02%	-13.95%	-7.85%	-12.52%	-5.61%	-4.37%	-8.17%	-5.55%	-6.88%	-7.65%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	11	11	10	6	5	14	8	8	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	No	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	30.97	30.39	30.56	31.04	29.65	30.04	31.10	31.60	30.97	29.72	28.23	28.72
Low	29.19	29.22	28.28	28.80	28.00	28.12	28.37	30.27	28.68	27.52	26.21	26.93
Close/Last	30.48	29.82	30.09	29.04	28.84	28.38	30.79	30.59	28.69	27.88	27.59	28.24