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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Oct 31, 2016
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#UTIL Higher Oct 668.15 679.10 638.20 675.25 91% 45 30 26 87% 679.10 712.90 675.25
SFH7 Lower Oct 104.06 103.93 100.84 101.75 29% 41 19 16 84% 100.84 97.27 101.75
JYH7 Lower Oct 99.31 99.50 95.29 95.82 13% 40 23 20 87% 95.29 91.42 95.82
CLF7 Lower Oct 49.40 52.74 47.22 47.46 4% 33 18 17 94% 47.22 41.52 47.46
CLG7 Lower Oct 49.93 53.26 47.81 48.05 4% 33 17 16 94% 47.81 41.82 48.05
CLH7 Lower Oct 50.41 53.68 48.38 48.62 5% 33 17 16 94% 48.38 42.60 48.62
ITCOH7 Lower Oct 51.71 55.27 49.75 49.92 3% 27 14 13 93% 49.75 42.30 49.92
ITCOJ7 Lower Oct 52.14 55.63 50.29 50.47 3% 26 15 13 87% 50.29 42.92 50.47
HOF7 Lower Oct 156.15 165.73 152.00 152.16 1% 37 23 20 87% 152.00 131.40 152.16
HOG7 Lower Oct 157.16 167.05 153.53 153.70 1% 37 21 18 86% 153.53 132.20 153.70
HOH7 Lower Oct 157.58 167.42 154.14 154.49 3% 37 18 16 89% 154.14 132.08 154.49
NGF7 Lower Oct 3.268 3.675 3.119 3.195 14% 26 17 15 88% 3.119 2.540 3.195
CBG7 Lower Oct 51.25 54.82 49.14 49.30 3% 27 13 12 92% 49.14 41.90 49.30
CBH7 Lower Oct 51.71 55.27 49.75 49.92 3% 27 14 13 93% 49.75 42.30 49.92


Dow Jones Utilities
The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 668.15(Prev Close), the market ended October at 675.25(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 638.20(Month Low) to 679.10(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in October than September in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #UTIL went on to exceed the October high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 679.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 712.90(Average Objective).

March Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 104.06(Prev Close), the market ended October at 101.75(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 100.84(Month Low) to 103.93(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Swiss Franc(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, SFH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFH should penetrate 100.84(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 97.27(Average Objective).

March Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 99.31(Prev Close), the market ended October at 95.82(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 95.29(Month Low) to 99.50(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Japanese Yen(CME) also closed lower in October than September in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, JYH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYH should penetrate 95.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 91.42(Average Objective).

January Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLF7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 49.40(Prev Close), the market ended October at 47.46(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 47.22(Month Low) to 52.74(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CLF went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLF should penetrate 47.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 41.52(Average Objective).

February Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 49.93(Prev Close), the market ended October at 48.05(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 47.81(Month Low) to 53.26(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLG should penetrate 47.81(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 41.82(Average Objective).

March Crude Oil(NYM)
The CLH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 50.41(Prev Close), the market ended October at 48.62(Month Close), that being 5%(Pct Range) off of 48.38(Month Low) to 53.68(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Crude Oil(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CLH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CLH should penetrate 48.38(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 42.60(Average Objective).

March Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 51.71(Prev Close), the market ended October at 49.92(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 49.75(Month Low) to 55.27(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ITCOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOH should penetrate 49.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 42.30(Average Objective).

April Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOJ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 52.14(Prev Close), the market ended October at 50.47(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 50.29(Month Low) to 55.63(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, ITCOJ went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOJ should penetrate 50.29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 42.92(Average Objective).

January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOF7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 156.15(Prev Close), the market ended October at 152.16(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 152.00(Month Low) to 165.73(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HOF went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should penetrate 152.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 131.40(Average Objective).

February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 157.16(Prev Close), the market ended October at 153.70(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 153.53(Month Low) to 167.05(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, HOG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should penetrate 153.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 132.20(Average Objective).

March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM)
The HOH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 157.58(Prev Close), the market ended October at 154.49(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 154.14(Month Low) to 167.42(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, HOH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOH should penetrate 154.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 132.08(Average Objective).

January Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGF7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 3.268(Prev Close), the market ended October at 3.195(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 3.119(Month Low) to 3.675(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in October than September in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGF went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGF should penetrate 3.119(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 2.540(Average Objective).

February Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The CBG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 51.25(Prev Close), the market ended October at 49.30(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 49.14(Month Low) to 54.82(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, CBG went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBG should penetrate 49.14(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 41.90(Average Objective).

March Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The CBH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for October(Month). Compared to September's 51.71(Prev Close), the market ended October at 49.92(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 49.75(Month Low) to 55.27(Month High).

In comparing the September/October closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in October than September in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, CBH went on to penetrate the October low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CBH should penetrate 49.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of December. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 42.30(Average Objective).
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