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ScenarioSM Study for February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2018 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
Tested Years | 12 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 29 | |
Closed Higher | 4 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | |
Exceeded High | 4 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 11 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 93% | 94% | 86% | 91% | 86% | 94% | 73% | 81% | 67% | 73% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.10% | 10.08% | 9.25% | 10.21% | 8.79% | 10.63% | 9.90% | 12.26% | 9.66% | 9.73% | 8.06% | |
Max Increase | 12.84% | 21.43% | 20.51% | 33.83% | 17.60% | 22.05% | 24.00% | 31.02% | 22.44% | 15.81% | 12.93% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 20 | 20 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.20% | -1.81% | -2.52% | -1.29% | -1.52% | -2.12% | -1.64% | -2.14% | -2.73% | -1.95% | -1.52% | |
Max Decline | -1.22% | -12.94% | -8.86% | -5.89% | -3.72% | -13.67% | -9.19% | -11.24% | -10.89% | -4.71% | -4.04% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 4 | |
2017 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.