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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Jul 31, 2016
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#OEX Higher Jul 928.15 963.85 918.70 961.75 95% 40 19 16 84% 963.85 1004.00 961.75
#RUT Higher Jul 1151.90 1224.75 1131.70 1219.95 95% 37 17 16 94% 1224.75 1294.65 1219.95
#MID Higher Jul 1496.50 1562.80 1473.25 1559.45 96% 35 14 13 93% 1562.80 1640.47 1559.45
#VLE Higher Jul 4661.30 4917.00 4575.30 4904.10 96% 33 16 15 94% 4917.00 5138.97 4904.10
#SP Higher Jul 2098.85 2177.10 2074.00 2173.60 97% 45 20 18 90% 2177.10 2272.64 2173.60
SPZ6 Higher Jul 2081.70 2163.10 2060.60 2160.60 98% 34 15 14 93% 2163.10 2241.95 2160.60
USZ6 Higher Jul 170~280 175~190 168~190 172~310 63% 38 22 21 95% 175~190 183~164 172~310
TYZ6 Higher Jul 132~015 133~095 130~220 132~035 54% 34 22 21 95% 133~095 137~158 132~035
SFZ6 Higher Jul 103.19 104.54 101.35 104.07 85% 41 17 16 94% 104.54 110.20 104.07
EUZ6 Higher Jul 111.45 112.63 110.20 112.46 93% 17 7 7 100% 112.63 116.27 112.46
JYZ6 Higher Jul 97.42 100.60 93.60 98.55 71% 39 17 15 88% 100.60 104.39 98.55
ADZ6 Higher Jul 74.01 76.36 73.68 75.71 76% 28 13 12 92% 76.36 78.69 75.71
DXZ6 Lower Jul 96.228 97.610 95.310 95.460 7% 30 14 13 93% 95.310 92.732 95.460
GCZ6 Higher Jul 1327.4 1384.4 1318.5 1357.5 59% 41 19 16 84% 1384.4 1529.5 1357.5
ITCOG7 Lower Jul 51.82 53.14 44.50 45.54 12% 25 8 7 88% 44.50 40.13 45.54
NGV6 Lower Jul 2.948 3.022 2.632 2.917 73% 26 16 14 88% 2.632 2.195 2.917
WZ6 Lower Jul 465.50 473.75 430.00 435.75 13% 45 21 20 95% 430.00 393.33 435.75
WH7 Lower Jul 483.25 492.00 452.75 460.25 19% 45 21 19 90% 452.75 414.20 460.25
KWH7 Lower Jul 464.25 474.00 441.50 453.00 35% 40 19 17 89% 441.50 404.48 453.00
RRX6 Lower Jul 10.93 11.17 10.00 10.22 18% 29 13 11 85% 10.00 9.13 10.22
RRF7 Lower Jul 11.16 11.42 10.23 10.43 17% 29 13 11 85% 10.23 9.42 10.43
LCV6 Lower Jul 114.650 115.280 105.250 111.730 65% 45 15 14 93% 105.250 99.127 111.730
LCG7 Lower Jul 114.300 114.835 107.200 111.800 60% 45 14 12 86% 107.200 101.563 111.800
LEG7 Lower Jul 67.350 67.635 58.850 59.150 3% 45 19 16 84% 58.850 55.088 59.150
KCZ6 Higher Jul 148.30 157.65 142.15 149.50 47% 42 15 13 87% 157.65 170.62 149.50
CCZ6 Lower Jul 2938 3143 2826 2846 6% 45 19 16 84% 2826 2606 2846
CCH7 Lower Jul 2907 3109 2812 2832 7% 45 19 17 89% 2812 2608 2832
LBX6 Higher Jul 310.5 343.0 316.2 327.0 40% 43 14 12 86% 343.0 383.6 327.0


S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 928.15(Prev Close), the market ended July at 961.75(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 918.70(Month Low) to 963.85(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #OEX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 963.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1004.00(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #RUT(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1151.90(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1219.95(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 1131.70(Month Low) to 1224.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, the #RUT went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #RUT should exceed 1224.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1294.65(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1496.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1559.45(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 1473.25(Month Low) to 1562.80(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #MID went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1562.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1640.47(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 4661.30(Prev Close), the market ended July at 4904.10(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 4575.30(Month Low) to 4917.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #VLE went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 4917.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 5138.97(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2098.85(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2173.60(Month Close), that being 97%(Pct Range) off of 2074.00(Month Low) to 2177.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in July than June in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #SP went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2177.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 2272.64(Average Objective).

December S & P 500(CME)
The SPZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2081.70(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2160.60(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 2060.60(Month Low) to 2163.10(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, SPZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPZ should exceed 2163.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2241.95(Average Objective).

December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 170~280(Prev Close), the market ended July at 172~310(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 168~190(Month Low) to 175~190(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, USZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 175~190(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 183~164(Average Objective).

December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 132~015(Prev Close), the market ended July at 132~035(Month Close), that being 54%(Pct Range) off of 130~220(Month Low) to 133~095(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in July than June in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, TYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 133~095(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 137~158(Average Objective).

December Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 103.19(Prev Close), the market ended July at 104.07(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 101.35(Month Low) to 104.54(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, SFZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFZ should exceed 104.54(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 110.20(Average Objective).

December EuroFX(CME)
The EUZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 111.45(Prev Close), the market ended July at 112.46(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 110.20(Month Low) to 112.63(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, EUZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUZ should exceed 112.63(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 116.27(Average Objective).

December Japanese Yen(CME)
The JYZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 97.42(Prev Close), the market ended July at 98.55(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 93.60(Month Low) to 100.60(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Japanese Yen(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, JYZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JYZ should exceed 100.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 104.39(Average Objective).

December Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 74.01(Prev Close), the market ended July at 75.71(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 73.68(Month Low) to 76.36(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ADZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADZ should exceed 76.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 78.69(Average Objective).

December US Dollar Index(ICE)
The DXZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 96.228(Prev Close), the market ended July at 95.460(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 95.310(Month Low) to 97.610(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, DXZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXZ should penetrate 95.310(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 92.732(Average Objective).

December Gold(CMX)
The GCZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 1327.4(Prev Close), the market ended July at 1357.5(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 1318.5(Month Low) to 1384.4(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Gold(CMX) also closed higher in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, GCZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the GCZ should exceed 1384.4(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1529.5(Average Objective).

February Brent Crude Oil(ICE)
The ITCOG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 51.82(Prev Close), the market ended July at 45.54(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 44.50(Month Low) to 53.14(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Brent Crude Oil(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, ITCOG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ITCOG should penetrate 44.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 40.13(Average Objective).

October Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGV6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2.948(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2.917(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 2.632(Month Low) to 3.022(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in July than June in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should penetrate 2.632(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.195(Average Objective).

December Wheat(CBOT)
The WZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 465.50(Prev Close), the market ended July at 435.75(Month Close), that being 13%(Pct Range) off of 430.00(Month Low) to 473.75(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, WZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 430.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 393.33(Average Objective).

March Wheat(CBOT)
The WH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 483.25(Prev Close), the market ended July at 460.25(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 452.75(Month Low) to 492.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, WH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WH should penetrate 452.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 414.20(Average Objective).

March Wheat(KCBT)
The KWH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 464.25(Prev Close), the market ended July at 453.00(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 441.50(Month Low) to 474.00(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KWH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWH should penetrate 441.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 404.48(Average Objective).

November Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRX6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 10.93(Prev Close), the market ended July at 10.22(Month Close), that being 18%(Pct Range) off of 10.00(Month Low) to 11.17(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRX went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRX should penetrate 10.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 9.13(Average Objective).

January Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRF7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 11.16(Prev Close), the market ended July at 10.43(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 10.23(Month Low) to 11.42(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in July than June in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRF went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRF should penetrate 10.23(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 9.42(Average Objective).

October Live Cattle(CME)
The LCV6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 114.650(Prev Close), the market ended July at 111.730(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 105.250(Month Low) to 115.280(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, LCV went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCV should penetrate 105.250(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 99.127(Average Objective).

February Live Cattle(CME)
The LCG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 114.300(Prev Close), the market ended July at 111.800(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 107.200(Month Low) to 114.835(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, LCG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCG should penetrate 107.200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 101.563(Average Objective).

February Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEG7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 67.350(Prev Close), the market ended July at 59.150(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 58.850(Month Low) to 67.635(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LEG went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEG should penetrate 58.850(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 55.088(Average Objective).

December Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCZ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 148.30(Prev Close), the market ended July at 149.50(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 142.15(Month Low) to 157.65(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed higher in July than June in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, KCZ went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should exceed 157.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 170.62(Average Objective).

December Cocoa(ICE)
The CCZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2938(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2846(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 2826(Month Low) to 3143(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CCZ went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCZ should penetrate 2826(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 2606(Average Objective).

March Cocoa(ICE)
The CCH7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 2907(Prev Close), the market ended July at 2832(Month Close), that being 7%(Pct Range) off of 2812(Month Low) to 3109(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Cocoa(ICE) also closed lower in July than June in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CCH went on to penetrate the July low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CCH should penetrate 2812(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 2608(Average Objective).

November Lumber(CME)
The LBX6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for July(Month). Compared to June's 310.5(Prev Close), the market ended July at 327.0(Month Close), that being 40%(Pct Range) off of 316.2(Month Low) to 343.0(Month High).

In comparing the June/July closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Lumber(CME) also closed higher in July than June in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, LBX went on to exceed the July high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBX should exceed 343.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of September. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 383.6(Average Objective).
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