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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

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ScenarioSM Summary Apr 30, 2007
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Apr 12354.00 13162.00 12324.00 13063.00 88% 45 26 23 88% 13162.00 13703.84 13063.00
#OEX Higher Apr 649.70 686.80 647.15 680.60 84% 23 14 14 100% 686.80 719.45 680.60
#NDX Higher Apr 1772.40 1896.80 1761.70 1867.80 79% 21 10 10 100% 1896.80 2073.94 1867.80
#MID Higher Apr 848.45 890.85 847.65 873.65 60% 26 16 14 88% 890.85 946.47 873.65
#VLE Higher Apr 2303.00 2418.80 2301.00 2374.00 62% 24 13 12 92% 2418.80 2562.27 2374.00
#SSNI Higher Apr 17288 17782 16999 17400 51% 25 15 14 93% Yes 18532 17400
#SP Higher Apr 1420.85 1498.00 1416.40 1482.35 81% 45 30 26 87% 1498.00 1559.15 1482.35
SPM7 Higher Apr 1431.20 1504.50 1426.00 1488.40 79% 24 14 13 93% 1504.50 1561.78 1488.40
USM7 Higher Apr 111~08 111~29 110~02 111~24 92% 29 12 11 92% 111~29 118~17 111~24
TYM7 Higher Apr 108~040 108~140 107~055 108~105 91% 24 11 11 100% 108~140 111~315 108~105
EDU7 Lower Apr 94.925 94.930 94.720 94.800 38% 25 9 9 100% 94.720 94.299 94.800
EDZ7 Lower Apr 95.125 95.130 94.865 94.990 47% 25 10 9 90% 94.865 94.363 94.990
SFU7 Higher Apr 83.41 84.11 82.60 83.72 74% 32 14 12 86% 84.11 86.65 83.72
ADU7 Higher Apr 80.46 83.36 80.83 82.73 75% 20 13 12 92% 83.36 86.53 82.73
NGQ7 Higher Apr 8.109 8.315 7.730 8.136 69% 16 9 8 89% 8.315 9.498 8.136
NGU7 Higher Apr 8.157 8.355 7.810 8.191 70% 16 9 8 89% 8.355 9.467 8.191
BOZ7 Higher Apr 34.13 35.04 32.66 34.78 89% 44 26 22 85% 35.04 38.68 34.78
CN7 Lower Apr 385.50 393.00 355.50 367.50 32% 45 28 25 89% 355.50 327.60 367.50
CZ7 Lower Apr 383.50 401.00 358.00 364.50 15% 45 26 24 92% 358.00 331.08 364.50
ON7 Lower Apr 281.75 288.00 256.50 267.00 33% 32 14 12 86% 256.50 230.33 267.00
RRN7 Lower Apr 10.43 10.66 10.24 10.30 14% 17 8 8 100% 10.24 9.53 10.30
RRU7 Lower Apr 10.74 10.95 10.53 10.63 24% 20 10 10 100% 10.53 9.92 10.63
LEN7 Higher Apr 75.250 78.950 74.530 75.350 19% 37 26 22 85% 78.950 84.880 75.350
KCU7 Lower Apr 115.00 119.40 108.75 109.00 2% 33 16 14 88% 108.75 94.06 109.00
SBN7 Lower Apr 10.00 10.01 9.08 9.10 2% 45 25 21 84% 9.08 7.70 9.10
LBK7 Lower Apr 240.5 259.3 231.8 232.2 1% 33 18 16 89% 231.8 208.8 232.2


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 12354.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 13063.00(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 12324.00(Month Low) to 13162.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 13162.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 13703.84(Average Objective).

S & P 100(OEX)
The #OEX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 649.70(Prev Close), the market ended April at 680.60(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 647.15(Month Low) to 686.80(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 23 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, the #OEX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should exceed 686.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 719.45(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1772.40(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1867.80(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 1761.70(Month Low) to 1896.80(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 21 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in April than March in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, the #NDX went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1896.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 2073.94(Average Objective).

S & P Midcap 400 Index
The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 848.45(Prev Close), the market ended April at 873.65(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 847.65(Month Low) to 890.85(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #MID went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 890.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 946.47(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2303.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2374.00(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 2301.00(Month Low) to 2418.80(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 2418.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 2562.27(Average Objective).

Nikkei 225 Index
The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 17288(Prev Close), the market ended April at 17400(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 16999(Month Low) to 17782(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #SSNI went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 17782(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 18532(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1420.85(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1482.35(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 1416.40(Month Low) to 1498.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 30(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 30, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 1498.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 1559.15(Average Objective).

June S & P 500(CME)
The SPM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1431.20(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1488.40(Month Close), that being 79%(Pct Range) off of 1426.00(Month Low) to 1504.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, SPM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 1504.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1561.78(Average Objective).

June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 111~08(Prev Close), the market ended April at 111~24(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 110~02(Month Low) to 111~29(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 12(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 12, USM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USM should exceed 111~29(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 118~17(Average Objective).

June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 108~040(Prev Close), the market ended April at 108~105(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 107~055(Month Low) to 108~140(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 24 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, TYM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should exceed 108~140(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 111~315(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 94.925(Prev Close), the market ended April at 94.800(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 94.720(Month Low) to 94.930(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, EDU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 94.720(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 94.299(Average Objective).

December Eurodollars(CME)
The EDZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 95.125(Prev Close), the market ended April at 94.990(Month Close), that being 47%(Pct Range) off of 94.865(Month Low) to 95.130(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, EDZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 9 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should penetrate 94.865(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 9 years) a potential move toward 94.363(Average Objective).

September Swiss Franc(CME)
The SFU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 83.41(Prev Close), the market ended April at 83.72(Month Close), that being 74%(Pct Range) off of 82.60(Month Low) to 84.11(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, SFU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFU should exceed 84.11(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 86.65(Average Objective).

September Australian Dollar(CME)
The ADU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 80.46(Prev Close), the market ended April at 82.73(Month Close), that being 75%(Pct Range) off of 80.83(Month Low) to 83.36(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, ADU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADU should exceed 83.36(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 86.53(Average Objective).

August Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGQ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 8.109(Prev Close), the market ended April at 8.136(Month Close), that being 69%(Pct Range) off of 7.730(Month Low) to 8.315(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 8.315(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 9.498(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 8.157(Prev Close), the market ended April at 8.191(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 7.810(Month Low) to 8.355(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 16 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 9(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 9, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 8.355(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 9.467(Average Objective).

December Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 34.13(Prev Close), the market ended April at 34.78(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 32.66(Month Low) to 35.04(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, BOZ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOZ should exceed 35.04(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 38.68(Average Objective).

July Corn(CBOT)
The CN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 385.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 367.50(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 355.50(Month Low) to 393.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, CN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 355.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 327.60(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 383.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 364.50(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 358.00(Month Low) to 401.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 358.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 331.08(Average Objective).

July Oats(CBOT)
The ON7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 281.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 267.00(Month Close), that being 33%(Pct Range) off of 256.50(Month Low) to 288.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, ON went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 256.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 230.33(Average Objective).

July Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 10.43(Prev Close), the market ended April at 10.30(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 10.24(Month Low) to 10.66(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 17 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, RRN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 10.24(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 9.53(Average Objective).

September Rough Rice(CBOT)
The RRU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 10.74(Prev Close), the market ended April at 10.63(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 10.53(Month Low) to 10.95(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 20 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 10(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 10, RRU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should penetrate 10.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 9.92(Average Objective).

July Lean Hogs(CME)
The LEN7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 75.250(Prev Close), the market ended April at 75.350(Month Close), that being 19%(Pct Range) off of 74.530(Month Low) to 78.950(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, LEN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEN should exceed 78.950(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 84.880(Average Objective).

September Coffee "C"(NYBOT)
The KCU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 115.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 109.00(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 108.75(Month Low) to 119.40(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(NYBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, KCU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 108.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 94.06(Average Objective).

July Sugar #11(NYBOT)
The SBN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 10.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 9.10(Month Close), that being 2%(Pct Range) off of 9.08(Month Low) to 10.01(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(NYBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, SBN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should penetrate 9.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 7.70(Average Objective).

May Lumber(CME)
The LBK7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 240.5(Prev Close), the market ended April at 232.2(Month Close), that being 1%(Pct Range) off of 231.8(Month Low) to 259.3(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lumber(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, LBK went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBK should penetrate 231.8(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 208.8(Average Objective).