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| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for Value Line Index as of Sep 30, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
23 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
| Closed Higher |
15 |
15 |
17 |
13 |
17 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
11 |
15 |
17 |
| Exceeded High |
14 |
13 |
16 |
12 |
14 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
| Scenario Percentage |
93% |
87% |
94% |
92% |
82% |
83% |
92% |
85% |
91% |
87% |
94% |
| Avg Max Increase |
6.29% |
5.44% |
6.06% |
6.94% |
5.28% |
6.34% |
4.32% |
2.82% |
5.87% |
7.57% |
2.75% |
| Max Increase |
15.44% |
11.48% |
22.43% |
16.79% |
11.15% |
10.25% |
8.96% |
7.54% |
15.24% |
16.53% |
6.04% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
17 |
16 |
21 |
17 |
20 |
19 |
16 |
18 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.71% |
-0.57% |
-2.03% |
-1.21% |
-0.75% |
-0.77% |
-1.73% |
-1.43% |
-2.69% |
-1.17% |
-0.79% |
| Max Decline |
-3.00% |
-4.88% |
-7.92% |
-4.02% |
-2.59% |
-5.53% |
-4.02% |
-3.68% |
-10.95% |
-5.52% |
-3.13% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
8 |
4 |
12 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
12 |
12 |
5 |
8 |
4 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Action |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
| Tested Years |
23 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
24 |
| Closed Lower |
8 |
8 |
7 |
11 |
7 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
13 |
9 |
7 |
| Penetrated Low |
5 |
4 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
4 |
7 |
| Scenario Percentage |
63% |
50% |
100% |
45% |
71% |
55% |
75% |
73% |
69% |
44% |
100% |
| Avg Max Decline |
6.25% |
6.33% |
4.41% |
5.55% |
9.46% |
13.92% |
10.81% |
8.23% |
8.97% |
3.78% |
14.08% |
| Max Decline |
9.71% |
11.11% |
8.19% |
14.21% |
27.57% |
21.86% |
23.80% |
20.76% |
32.94% |
9.25% |
30.84% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
18 |
14 |
13 |
18 |
24 |
23 |
18 |
17 |
21 |
15 |
12 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-0.71% |
-2.32% |
-0.99% |
-1.44% |
-1.79% |
-0.86% |
-1.63% |
-3.30% |
-1.68% |
-1.48% |
-4.53% |
| Max Increase |
-2.68% |
-3.08% |
-2.71% |
-2.11% |
-3.34% |
-1.96% |
-6.71% |
-10.04% |
-3.49% |
-2.07% |
-9.17% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
3 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
15 |
6 |
8 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
25 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| Action |
|
|
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
|
|
| High |
2279.00 |
2366.30 |
2328.00 |
2418.80 |
2470.60 |
2487.00 |
2509.10 |
2360.80 |
2402.90 |
2408.50 |
|
| Low |
2185.90 |
2258.50 |
2200.30 |
2301.00 |
2357.40 |
2392.60 |
2307.00 |
2152.60 |
2260.30 |
2365.90 |
|
| Close/Last |
2273.70 |
2278.70 |
2303.00 |
2374.00 |
2465.70 |
2431.50 |
2315.90 |
2326.80 |
2365.40 |
2406.00 |
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