MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Aug 18, 2023 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
| Tested Years | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 22 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 24 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 25 | 20 | |
| Exceeded High | 16 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 20 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 13 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 73% | 82% | 76% | 68% | 83% | 83% | 70% | 73% | 74% | 60% | 65% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 14.26% | 12.18% | 11.19% | 11.01% | 10.74% | 13.01% | 10.28% | 10.51% | 9.77% | 11.23% | 4.92% | |
| Max Increase | 45.63% | 28.87% | 29.17% | 25.47% | 36.86% | 26.00% | 20.59% | 26.59% | 23.55% | 21.29% | 11.69% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 19 | 13 | 8 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.91% | -1.99% | -1.62% | -2.42% | -1.35% | -1.87% | -2.54% | -2.37% | -3.26% | -1.96% | -0.72% | |
| Max Decline | -7.01% | -6.47% | -10.55% | -6.09% | -3.76% | -6.98% | -8.91% | -6.22% | -9.14% | -5.56% | -2.51% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 3 | |
| 2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
