MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	22	21	19	24	18	20	22	19	25	20
Exceeded High		16	18	16	13	20	15	14	16	14	15	13
Scenario Percentage		73%	82%	76%	68%	83%	83%	70%	73%	74%	60%	65%
Avg Max Increase		14.26%	12.18%	11.19%	11.01%	10.74%	13.01%	10.28%	10.51%	9.77%	11.23%	4.92%
Max Increase		45.63%	28.87%	29.17%	25.47%	36.86%	26.00%	20.59%	26.59%	23.55%	21.29%	11.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	15	17	16	16	17	17	14	19	13	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.91%	-1.99%	-1.62%	-2.42%	-1.35%	-1.87%	-2.54%	-2.37%	-3.26%	-1.96%	-0.72%
Max Decline		-7.01%	-6.47%	-10.55%	-6.09%	-3.76%	-6.98%	-8.91%	-6.22%	-9.14%	-5.56%	-2.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	8	7	6	3	6	9	16	5	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	23	24	26	20	27	24	23	26	20	25
Penetrated Low		15	21	20	21	16	24	17	17	21	18	16
Scenario Percentage		71%	91%	83%	81%	80%	89%	71%	74%	81%	90%	64%
Avg Max Decline		7.28%	6.43%	7.82%	7.16%	7.86%	6.17%	7.40%	8.05%	7.66%	6.12%	3.23%
Max Decline		13.60%	15.57%	15.14%	23.98%	33.63%	17.28%	16.44%	27.78%	18.26%	12.77%	8.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	18	16	18	13	14	15	15	17	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.23%	-3.49%	-3.09%	-1.79%	-2.00%	-2.10%	-2.08%	-2.38%	-2.18%	-1.91%	-0.97%
Max Increase		-9.22%	-15.36%	-12.52%	-7.06%	-4.74%	-6.64%	-7.78%	-7.11%	-5.44%	-5.77%	-3.42%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	11	7	10	9	11	4	8	8	7	2
2023 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			No	Yes
High	413.00	414.70	410.50	410.60	420.60	421.00	429.40	419.10	417.60	476.10	490.30	508.20
Low	385.40	388.00	382.70	379.80	374.30	385.30	394.10	388.20	394.50	413.30	452.80	477.80
Close/Last	394.80	395.80	394.60	401.30	410.30	401.60	397.20	409.30	416.00	471.00	484.20	487.60