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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of May 16, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   21 31 32 33 36 36 38 38 38 38 38
Closed Higher   11 14 18 16 21 22 21 28 27 22 19
Exceeded High   7 12 12 15 20 18 21 25 23 18 13
Scenario Percentage   64% 86% 67% 94% 95% 82% 100% 89% 85% 82% 68%
Avg Max Increase   9.93% 7.88% 7.89% 10.49% 10.50% 16.26% 12.93% 11.87% 13.40% 10.44% 9.41%
Max Increase   27.22% 17.17% 13.02% 20.89% 27.60% 34.59% 26.78% 30.96% 60.45% 21.49% 18.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 15 23 18 19 19 19 16 16 17 18
Avg Max Decline   -0.63% -1.10% -1.44% -1.65% -1.45% -2.62% -2.62% -2.48% -2.67% -4.55% -2.46%
Max Decline   -2.71% -6.20% -7.66% -11.61% -7.85% -16.59% -13.61% -7.23% -12.59% -12.28% -7.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline   4 4 10 6 7 8 8 6 8 12 5
2024 Contract Condition             Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action             Yes Yes Yes Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   21 31 32 33 36 36 38 38 38 38 38
Closed Lower   10 16 14 16 15 14 17 10 11 16 19
Penetrated Low   6 12 11 14 9 8 9 7 8 12 9
Scenario Percentage   60% 75% 79% 88% 60% 57% 53% 70% 73% 75% 47%
Avg Max Decline   15.45% 12.16% 15.15% 12.10% 15.10% 19.57% 14.40% 8.70% 10.06% 10.88% 11.88%
Max Decline   44.19% 48.88% 38.92% 26.88% 38.53% 61.96% 57.24% 13.47% 19.87% 22.71% 21.86%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 15 17 18 14 15 16 7 16 19 22
Avg Max Increase   -0.62% -0.57% -1.73% -1.65% -2.19% -1.77% -3.69% -2.26% -3.14% -2.31% -2.27%
Max Increase   -2.56% -5.94% -4.96% -11.66% -5.81% -6.71% -8.84% -7.38% -7.24% -10.57% -6.12%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 6 3 7 8 8 14 7 11 9 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes         Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes No            
High 245.28 249.12 259.60 247.20 240.66 236.24 244.70 248.66 261.10 272.62 259.31  
Low 216.71 238.86 243.42 228.10 223.38 215.45 218.90 226.67 240.13 254.16 240.77  
Close/Last 245.28 245.21 243.77 236.60 232.37 224.54 236.67 244.70 259.04 260.10 249.17  

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