MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jun 13, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		21	31	32	33	36	36	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		11	14	18	16	21	22	21	28	27	22	19
Exceeded High		7	12	12	15	20	18	21	25	23	18	13
Scenario Percentage		64%	86%	67%	94%	95%	82%	100%	89%	85%	82%	68%
Avg Max Increase		9.93%	7.88%	7.89%	10.49%	10.50%	16.26%	12.93%	11.87%	13.40%	10.44%	9.41%
Max Increase		27.22%	17.17%	13.02%	20.89%	27.60%	34.59%	26.78%	30.96%	60.45%	21.49%	18.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	15	23	18	19	19	19	16	16	17	18
Avg Max Decline		-0.63%	-1.10%	-1.44%	-1.65%	-1.45%	-2.62%	-2.62%	-2.48%	-2.67%	-4.55%	-2.46%
Max Decline		-2.71%	-6.20%	-7.66%	-11.61%	-7.85%	-16.59%	-13.61%	-7.23%	-12.59%	-12.28%	-7.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	4	10	6	7	8	8	6	8	12	5
2024 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action							Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		21	31	32	33	36	36	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		10	16	14	16	15	14	17	10	11	16	19
Penetrated Low		6	12	11	14	9	8	9	7	8	12	9
Scenario Percentage		60%	75%	79%	88%	60%	57%	53%	70%	73%	75%	47%
Avg Max Decline		15.45%	12.16%	15.15%	12.10%	15.10%	19.57%	14.40%	8.70%	10.06%	10.88%	11.88%
Max Decline		44.19%	48.88%	38.92%	26.88%	38.53%	61.96%	57.24%	13.47%	19.87%	22.71%	21.86%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	15	17	18	14	15	16	7	16	19	22
Avg Max Increase		-0.62%	-0.57%	-1.73%	-1.65%	-2.19%	-1.77%	-3.69%	-2.26%	-3.14%	-2.31%	-2.27%
Max Increase		-2.56%	-5.94%	-4.96%	-11.66%	-5.81%	-6.71%	-8.84%	-7.38%	-7.24%	-10.57%	-6.12%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	6	3	7	8	8	14	7	11	9	4
2024 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No					Yes
High	245.28	249.12	259.60	247.20	240.66	236.24	244.70	248.66	261.10	272.62	259.31	243.76
Low	216.71	238.86	243.42	228.10	223.38	215.45	218.90	226.67	240.13	254.16	237.63	228.65
Close/Last	245.28	245.21	243.77	236.60	232.37	224.54	236.67	244.70	259.04	260.10	239.91	240.20