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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33
Closed Higher   14 17 17 15 11 10 13 16 16 20 18
Exceeded High   8 15 14 12 9 8 10 14 11 20 13
Scenario Percentage   57% 88% 82% 80% 82% 80% 77% 88% 69% 100% 72%
Avg Max Increase   8.68% 13.27% 8.53% 7.55% 8.24% 11.19% 16.90% 16.89% 22.00% 17.60% 15.44%
Max Increase   27.75% 40.81% 23.43% 14.62% 16.87% 26.34% 49.02% 34.72% 54.16% 64.90% 43.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 19 18 18 15 16 18 22 17 18 15
Avg Max Decline   -1.86% -2.80% -2.50% -3.62% -3.07% -4.02% -1.82% -3.79% -3.14% -4.76% -3.64%
Max Decline   -3.38% -10.98% -6.40% -13.06% -10.47% -13.89% -5.83% -15.77% -8.24% -9.02% -11.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 12 12 12 6 17 7 8 7 10 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes            
Action   Yes       Yes            
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33
Closed Lower   18 16 16 18 22 23 20 17 17 13 15
Penetrated Low   14 12 12 16 18 19 16 15 12 12 10
Scenario Percentage   78% 75% 75% 89% 82% 83% 80% 88% 71% 92% 67%
Avg Max Decline   7.35% 8.24% 9.07% 8.37% 12.63% 13.81% 12.30% 13.75% 12.55% 10.32% 8.61%
Max Decline   14.02% 17.20% 22.34% 18.69% 23.19% 31.08% 39.09% 28.30% 29.41% 22.12% 15.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 18 18 21 19 17 14 19 17 16 15
Avg Max Increase   -2.57% -1.73% -1.64% -5.07% -2.48% -2.28% -2.79% -5.69% -5.31% -6.00% -2.58%
Max Increase   -12.48% -5.35% -7.18% -19.06% -12.74% -8.25% -15.44% -12.38% -20.14% -23.12% -8.82%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 3 9 14 7 7 7 11 14 10 4
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Not Yet
High 3.378 3.314 3.293 3.352 3.259 3.427 3.446 2.829 2.891 2.418 2.392 2.140
Low 3.109 3.057 3.155 3.128 3.080 3.099 2.762 2.322 2.329 1.930 1.928 1.907
Close/Last 3.133 3.260 3.229 3.213 3.151 3.373 2.801 2.519 2.369 2.249 1.997 1.991

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