MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June Natural Gas(NYM) as of Jun 03, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		33	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		15	17	17	15	12	10	13	16	16	20	18
Exceeded High		9	15	14	12	10	8	10	14	11	20	13
Scenario Percentage		60%	88%	82%	80%	83%	80%	77%	88%	69%	100%	72%
Avg Max Increase		8.03%	13.27%	8.53%	7.55%	7.63%	11.19%	16.90%	16.89%	22.00%	17.60%	15.44%
Max Increase		27.75%	40.81%	23.43%	14.62%	16.87%	26.34%	49.02%	34.72%	54.16%	64.90%	43.27%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	18	18	14	16	18	22	17	18	15
Avg Max Decline		-2.11%	-2.80%	-2.50%	-3.62%	-3.01%	-4.02%	-1.82%	-3.79%	-3.14%	-4.76%	-3.64%
Max Decline		-4.05%	-10.98%	-6.40%	-13.06%	-10.47%	-13.89%	-5.83%	-15.77%	-8.24%	-9.02%	-11.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	12	12	12	5	17	7	8	7	10	4
2024 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes
Action		Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		33	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		18	17	17	19	22	24	21	18	18	14	16
Penetrated Low		14	13	13	17	18	20	17	16	13	13	10
Scenario Percentage		78%	76%	76%	89%	82%	83%	81%	89%	72%	93%	63%
Avg Max Decline		7.35%	7.96%	8.69%	8.61%	12.63%	13.98%	12.95%	14.06%	12.86%	9.87%	8.61%
Max Decline		14.02%	17.20%	22.34%	18.69%	23.19%	31.08%	39.09%	28.30%	29.41%	22.12%	15.87%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	18	18	22	19	16	14	19	17	16	15
Avg Max Increase		-2.57%	-1.89%	-1.62%	-5.32%	-2.48%	-2.22%	-3.49%	-5.47%	-5.26%	-6.07%	-2.58%
Max Increase		-12.48%	-5.35%	-7.18%	-19.06%	-12.74%	-8.25%	-15.44%	-12.38%	-20.14%	-23.12%	-8.82%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	4	9	15	7	7	7	11	14	10	4
2024 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	3.378	3.314	3.293	3.352	3.259	3.427	3.446	2.829	2.891	2.418	2.392	2.140
Low	3.109	3.057	3.155	3.128	3.080	3.099	2.762	2.322	2.329	1.930	1.928	1.907
Close/Last	3.133	3.260	3.229	3.213	3.151	3.373	2.801	2.519	2.369	2.249	1.997	1.991