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ScenarioSM Study for December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2020 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Tested Years | 21 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | |
Closed Higher | 11 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 18 | |
Exceeded High | 10 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 13 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 91% | 85% | 100% | 94% | 95% | 84% | 83% | 93% | 95% | 76% | 72% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.57% | 9.73% | 10.59% | 10.61% | 10.69% | 10.21% | 9.38% | 10.10% | 14.77% | 16.41% | 7.27% | |
Max Increase | 16.86% | 20.24% | 25.17% | 24.34% | 22.25% | 33.88% | 17.35% | 19.80% | 86.32% | 53.95% | 14.72% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 16 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.40% | -2.02% | -3.26% | -2.65% | -3.24% | -2.36% | -1.67% | -2.67% | -2.51% | -2.26% | -2.21% | |
Max Decline | -8.69% | -7.31% | -9.86% | -13.88% | -9.24% | -6.57% | -4.93% | -14.47% | -13.69% | -13.31% | -12.61% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 3 | |
2019 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.