MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		21	25	25	25	28	28	28	30	30	30	31
Closed Higher		11	13	12	16	19	19	12	15	20	17	18
Exceeded High		10	11	12	15	18	16	10	14	19	13	13
Scenario Percentage		91%	85%	100%	94%	95%	84%	83%	93%	95%	76%	72%
Avg Max Increase		7.57%	9.73%	10.59%	10.61%	10.69%	10.21%	9.38%	10.10%	14.77%	16.41%	7.27%
Max Increase		16.86%	20.24%	25.17%	24.34%	22.25%	33.88%	17.35%	19.80%	86.32%	53.95%	14.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	16	15	19	18	16	17	18	19	16	15
Avg Max Decline		-2.40%	-2.02%	-3.26%	-2.65%	-3.24%	-2.36%	-1.67%	-2.67%	-2.51%	-2.26%	-2.21%
Max Decline		-8.69%	-7.31%	-9.86%	-13.88%	-9.24%	-6.57%	-4.93%	-14.47%	-13.69%	-13.31%	-12.61%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	7	9	7	8	6	6	7	9	3
2019 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		21	25	25	25	28	28	28	30	30	30	31
Closed Lower		10	12	13	9	9	9	16	15	10	13	13
Penetrated Low		6	7	5	3	4	5	10	9	8	9	9
Scenario Percentage		60%	58%	38%	33%	44%	56%	63%	60%	80%	69%	69%
Avg Max Decline		20.96%	15.61%	9.60%	7.34%	5.70%	10.98%	9.28%	11.41%	12.62%	14.42%	11.07%
Max Decline		35.56%	25.56%	16.55%	11.41%	11.76%	23.02%	20.92%	33.34%	28.79%	49.34%	40.72%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	16	14	12	4	19	17	13	16	19	15
Avg Max Increase		-1.52%	-3.63%	-2.48%	-1.08%	-1.76%	-3.94%	-1.33%	-1.29%	-3.85%	-3.56%	-1.88%
Max Increase		-7.05%	-7.63%	-6.39%	-2.61%	-5.94%	-7.61%	-2.99%	-6.20%	-21.51%	-15.64%	-10.83%
Avg Days to Max Increase		2	9	3	12	4	9	4	6	11	15	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	No					Yes			Not Yet
High	81.99	73.90	64.07	62.93	66.88	67.26	71.95	70.01	65.05	66.56	63.62	70.32
Low	73.36	59.11	51.74	54.02	60.25	63.54	66.25	59.56	57.27	60.46	55.31	56.48
Close/Last	73.80	59.85	55.14	60.68	65.72	66.13	69.64	60.15	63.80	64.08	58.46	59.25