|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Jan 07, 2009 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
| Tested Years |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Higher |
22 |
24 |
19 |
21 |
26 |
26 |
26 |
33 |
23 |
20 |
23 |
| Exceeded High |
19 |
17 |
16 |
18 |
25 |
24 |
25 |
22 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
| Scenario Percentage |
86% |
71% |
84% |
86% |
96% |
92% |
96% |
67% |
65% |
90% |
78% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.61% |
11.69% |
7.87% |
10.40% |
12.93% |
13.60% |
12.36% |
12.08% |
10.37% |
9.73% |
7.89% |
| Max Increase |
25.67% |
28.89% |
19.96% |
39.30% |
44.19% |
41.30% |
46.81% |
64.86% |
25.45% |
22.91% |
23.93% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
17 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-1.48% |
-1.78% |
-2.59% |
-2.52% |
-1.72% |
-3.05% |
-2.48% |
-2.46% |
-2.67% |
-2.91% |
-1.14% |
| Max Decline |
-8.85% |
-7.34% |
-13.92% |
-9.72% |
-8.27% |
-10.04% |
-10.51% |
-7.75% |
-16.01% |
-12.21% |
-5.13% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
10 |
8 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
3 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
| Action |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
| Tested Years |
44 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
| Closed Lower |
22 |
21 |
26 |
24 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
12 |
22 |
25 |
22 |
| Penetrated Low |
13 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
15 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
16 |
18 |
15 |
| Scenario Percentage |
59% |
81% |
69% |
75% |
79% |
53% |
63% |
83% |
73% |
72% |
68% |
| Avg Max Decline |
10.31% |
7.32% |
7.61% |
8.50% |
6.09% |
7.07% |
9.14% |
5.80% |
8.28% |
9.65% |
18.23% |
| Max Decline |
20.44% |
14.76% |
17.77% |
22.11% |
16.97% |
12.34% |
32.42% |
19.20% |
16.99% |
26.78% |
68.01% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
21 |
18 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
9 |
15 |
20 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-1.71% |
-1.83% |
-1.24% |
-2.07% |
-1.09% |
-1.59% |
-2.09% |
-4.70% |
-2.53% |
-1.97% |
-3.98% |
| Max Increase |
-7.43% |
-4.58% |
-4.59% |
-8.61% |
-4.01% |
-5.83% |
-6.44% |
-15.97% |
-11.15% |
-9.43% |
-14.46% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
11 |
8 |
3 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
17 |
11 |
7 |
11 |
| 2008 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
| Action |
No |
|
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
|
No |
|
Yes |
|
| High |
340.65 |
355.00 |
365.50 |
339.50 |
319.00 |
338.20 |
389.00 |
400.70 |
404.50 |
424.00 |
389.55 |
| Low |
299.70 |
317.50 |
343.85 |
294.35 |
290.00 |
306.00 |
319.50 |
345.85 |
371.25 |
355.85 |
351.00 |
| Close/Last |
329.30 |
354.45 |
347.35 |
319.20 |
305.70 |
331.15 |
384.25 |
383.10 |
390.45 |
360.60 |
389.55 |
|
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