MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	24	19	21	26	26	26	33	23	20	23
Exceeded High		19	17	16	18	25	24	25	22	15	18	18
Scenario Percentage		86%	71%	84%	86%	96%	92%	96%	67%	65%	90%	78%
Avg Max Increase		8.61%	11.69%	7.87%	10.40%	12.95%	13.60%	12.36%	12.08%	10.41%	9.73%	7.95%
Max Increase		25.67%	28.89%	19.96%	39.30%	44.19%	41.30%	46.81%	64.86%	25.45%	22.91%	23.93%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	19	18	19	19	14	15	14	16	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.48%	-1.78%	-2.59%	-2.61%	-1.72%	-3.05%	-2.53%	-2.60%	-2.78%	-2.92%	-1.21%
Max Decline		-8.85%	-7.34%	-13.92%	-9.72%	-8.27%	-10.04%	-10.51%	-7.75%	-16.01%	-12.21%	-5.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	8	10	9	7	9	9	7	5	7	3
2008 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	21	26	24	19	19	19	12	22	25	22
Penetrated Low		13	17	18	18	15	10	12	10	16	18	12
Scenario Percentage		59%	81%	69%	75%	79%	53%	63%	83%	73%	72%	55%
Avg Max Decline		10.31%	7.32%	7.64%	8.54%	6.09%	7.07%	9.14%	5.80%	8.28%	9.66%	5.01%
Max Decline		20.44%	14.76%	17.77%	22.17%	16.97%	12.34%	32.42%	19.20%	16.99%	26.78%	15.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	18	15	15	16	9	15	20	16	14	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.75%	-1.83%	-1.36%	-2.08%	-1.09%	-1.59%	-2.09%	-4.70%	-2.61%	-1.99%	0.04%
Max Increase		-7.90%	-4.58%	-4.59%	-8.61%	-4.01%	-5.83%	-6.44%	-15.97%	-11.15%	-9.43%	-1.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	8	3	10	10	7	7	17	11	7	4
2008 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	No			No		Yes
High	347.40	342.70	356.00	365.50	346.90	321.55	338.20	389.00	400.70	404.50	426.05	391.90
Low	327.00	297.75	315.00	343.75	294.35	288.00	306.00	319.50	345.85	371.25	355.05	350.65
Close/Last	345.15	329.30	354.45	347.35	319.20	305.70	331.15	384.25	383.10	390.45	360.60	389.55