|
 |
| MRCI's ScenarioSM Study |
| ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of May 31, 2007 |
Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close.
Action --->
Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's
high within 2 months. |
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
| Tested Years |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
| Closed Higher |
21 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
10 |
13 |
| Exceeded High |
12 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
7 |
11 |
| Scenario Percentage |
57% |
73% |
73% |
87% |
67% |
67% |
67% |
69% |
71% |
70% |
85% |
| Avg Max Increase |
8.90% |
7.11% |
14.36% |
11.74% |
5.11% |
3.36% |
8.54% |
7.50% |
6.75% |
6.73% |
7.45% |
| Max Increase |
22.72% |
14.41% |
103.03% |
58.22% |
9.68% |
7.05% |
24.30% |
13.80% |
25.41% |
14.18% |
25.62% |
| Avg Days To Max Increase |
16 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
| Avg Max Decline |
-0.89% |
-1.28% |
-0.61% |
-1.04% |
-1.93% |
-1.13% |
-0.88% |
-1.05% |
-1.48% |
-1.24% |
-1.36% |
| Max Decline |
-4.16% |
-3.13% |
-2.89% |
-5.91% |
-6.76% |
-2.68% |
-1.97% |
-5.22% |
-4.89% |
-4.32% |
-3.56% |
| Avg Days to Max Decline |
10 |
2 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
2 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
|
| Action |
|
Yes |
No |
|
Yes |
No |
|
Not Yet |
|
|
|
Condition 2:
Lower Monthly Close.
Action --->
Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's
low within 2 months.
|
| Tested Month |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
| Tested Years |
31 |
31 |
31 |
31 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
| Closed Lower |
10 |
20 |
16 |
16 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
21 |
19 |
| Penetrated Low |
7 |
17 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
15 |
12 |
17 |
| Scenario Percentage |
70% |
85% |
75% |
88% |
80% |
90% |
90% |
84% |
83% |
57% |
89% |
| Avg Max Decline |
4.00% |
5.01% |
7.93% |
7.55% |
5.18% |
6.58% |
4.54% |
4.86% |
6.76% |
6.07% |
11.36% |
| Max Decline |
8.59% |
14.35% |
25.16% |
21.14% |
20.15% |
29.37% |
10.55% |
14.94% |
19.39% |
18.48% |
65.47% |
| Avg Days To Max Decline |
16 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
14 |
18 |
19 |
14 |
11 |
16 |
| Avg Max Increase |
-0.99% |
-1.85% |
-2.04% |
-0.24% |
-2.07% |
-1.64% |
-1.47% |
-2.58% |
-1.89% |
-1.18% |
-3.10% |
| Max Increase |
-2.05% |
-7.54% |
-5.97% |
-2.71% |
-12.81% |
-8.60% |
-7.05% |
-5.92% |
-4.86% |
-3.85% |
-9.52% |
| Avg Days to Max Increase |
13 |
9 |
12 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
6 |
8 |
-33 |
| 2007 Contract Condition |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
Yes |
|
|
| Action |
Yes |
|
|
Yes |
|
|
No |
|
Not Yet |
|
|
| High |
671.5 |
635.4 |
671.5 |
670.0 |
670.5 |
706.0 |
680.5 |
702.6 |
699.5 |
|
|
| Low |
605.4 |
586.0 |
642.0 |
635.7 |
590.0 |
663.9 |
647.5 |
668.8 |
657.5 |
|
|
| Close/Last |
626.9 |
630.2 |
671.5 |
656.5 |
670.5 |
685.0 |
675.2 |
689.9 |
666.7 |
|
|
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