MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Gold(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years	32	32	32	32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher	21	12	16	15	13	13	12	14	14	10	14
Exceeded High	12	9	12	13	9	8	8	9	10	7	11
Scenario Percentage	57%	75%	75%	87%	69%	62%	67%	64%	71%	70%	79%
Avg Max Increase	8.90%	7.00%	13.13%	11.79%	5.24%	3.37%	8.66%	7.65%	6.77%	6.83%	7.45%
Max Increase	22.72%	14.41%	103.03%	58.22%	9.68%	7.05%	24.84%	13.80%	25.41%	14.18%	25.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase	16	11	14	14	13	13	16	17	14	14	15
Avg Max Decline	-0.89%	-1.12%	-1.19%	-1.10%	-1.82%	-1.14%	-0.89%	-1.09%	-1.49%	-1.24%	-1.33%
Max Decline	-4.16%	-3.13%	-7.52%	-5.91%	-6.76%	-2.68%	-1.97%	-5.22%	-4.89%	-4.32%	-3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline	10	2	8	7	7	2	6	7	6	12	2
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	No		No			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years	32	32	32	32	33	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower	11	20	16	17	20	20	21	19	19	22	19
Penetrated Low	8	17	12	15	16	18	18	16	16	12	17
Scenario Percentage	73%	85%	75%	88%	80%	90%	86%	84%	84%	55%	89%
Avg Max Decline	4.32%	5.01%	7.93%	7.41%	5.18%	6.61%	4.54%	4.86%	6.73%	6.07%	11.36%
Max Decline	8.59%	14.35%	25.16%	21.14%	20.15%	29.37%	10.55%	14.94%	19.39%	18.48%	65.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline	14	14	18	18	14	14	18	19	15	11	16
Avg Max Increase	-0.91%	-1.85%	-2.04%	-0.33%	-2.07%	-1.65%	-1.52%	-2.60%	-1.91%	-1.18%	-3.15%
Max Increase	-2.05%	-7.54%	-5.97%	-2.71%	-12.81%	-8.60%	-7.05%	-5.92%	-4.86%	-3.89%	-9.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase	11	9	12	9	9	9	10	12	5	9	-33
2007 Contract Condition	Yes			Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action	Yes			Yes			No		Yes	Not Yet
High	671.5	635.4	671.5	671.5	671.7	706.0	692.3	704.1	699.7	679.5	688.4
Low	605.4	586.0	631.5	635.7	621.0	663.9	647.2	668.5	657.5	641.1	646.7
Close/Last	626.9	630.2	671.5	656.5	670.5	685.0	675.2	689.9	666.7	650.9	666.9