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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 16 23 25 25 18 23 22 23 19 18
Exceeded High   16 12 18 20 16 13 21 20 16 12 11
Scenario Percentage   73% 75% 78% 80% 64% 72% 91% 91% 70% 63% 61%
Avg Max Increase   6.80% 6.34% 11.93% 9.88% 8.20% 7.14% 10.73% 10.99% 6.45% 4.74% 5.53%
Max Increase   26.63% 15.14% 41.74% 36.12% 18.39% 17.89% 102.90% 60.45% 15.35% 9.37% 12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 16 15 16 15 13 17 15 17 14 18
Avg Max Decline   -1.25% -1.08% -1.75% -0.68% -1.67% -1.65% -2.04% -1.25% -2.33% -1.24% -0.89%
Max Decline   -4.91% -4.21% -4.29% -3.49% -6.30% -6.01% -9.36% -9.23% -7.12% -4.74% -1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 9 6 3 8 3 8 7 7 5 4
2023 Contract Condition               Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action               Yes Yes Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 29 22 20 20 27 22 23 22 26 27
Penetrated Low   17 18 16 14 14 22 17 17 19 23 17
Scenario Percentage   74% 62% 73% 70% 70% 81% 77% 74% 86% 88% 63%
Avg Max Decline   6.46% 4.74% 5.10% 6.80% 4.93% 5.69% 5.94% 7.13% 5.47% 6.50% 2.54%
Max Decline   19.63% 11.79% 19.58% 18.24% 8.36% 14.95% 24.92% 21.29% 20.24% 30.36% 6.24%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 14 16 20 17 14 15 16 14 12 11
Avg Max Increase   -1.47% -1.10% -0.93% -1.95% -2.23% -2.13% -1.16% -0.93% -2.20% -1.71% -0.88%
Max Increase   -4.67% -5.30% -5.00% -11.21% -6.73% -7.69% -5.64% -6.30% -12.86% -8.78% -3.63%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 7 7 12 14 10 7 7 8 8 4
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes       Not Yet  
High 2039.0 1943.6 1920.2 1852.1 1848.4 1771.0 1764.3 1821.2 1857.0 1966.5 1975.2 2014.9
Low 1924.0 1837.0 1848.8 1721.0 1746.0 1650.5 1650.0 1647.7 1793.5 1846.1 1810.8 1813.4
Close/Last 1952.7 1884.1 1851.3 1804.5 1750.9 1698.2 1669.5 1775.1 1842.2 1945.3 1836.7 1969.0

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