MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April Gold(CMX) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	16	23	25	25	18	23	22	23	19	18
Exceeded High		16	12	18	20	16	13	21	20	16	12	11
Scenario Percentage		73%	75%	78%	80%	64%	72%	91%	91%	70%	63%	61%
Avg Max Increase		6.80%	6.34%	11.93%	9.88%	8.20%	7.14%	10.73%	10.99%	6.45%	4.74%	5.53%
Max Increase		26.63%	15.14%	41.74%	36.12%	18.39%	17.89%	102.90%	60.45%	15.35%	9.37%	12.44%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	16	15	16	15	13	17	15	17	14	18
Avg Max Decline		-1.25%	-1.08%	-1.75%	-0.68%	-1.67%	-1.65%	-2.04%	-1.25%	-2.33%	-1.24%	-0.89%
Max Decline		-4.91%	-4.21%	-4.29%	-3.49%	-6.30%	-6.01%	-9.36%	-9.23%	-7.12%	-4.74%	-1.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	9	6	3	8	3	8	7	7	5	4
2023 Contract Condition								Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action								Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	29	22	20	20	27	22	23	22	26	27
Penetrated Low		17	18	16	14	14	22	17	17	19	23	17
Scenario Percentage		74%	62%	73%	70%	70%	81%	77%	74%	86%	88%	63%
Avg Max Decline		6.46%	4.74%	5.10%	6.80%	4.93%	5.69%	5.94%	7.13%	5.47%	6.50%	2.54%
Max Decline		19.63%	11.79%	19.58%	18.24%	8.36%	14.95%	24.92%	21.29%	20.24%	30.36%	6.24%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	14	16	20	17	14	15	16	14	12	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.47%	-1.10%	-0.93%	-1.95%	-2.23%	-2.13%	-1.16%	-0.93%	-2.20%	-1.71%	-0.88%
Max Increase		-4.67%	-5.30%	-5.00%	-11.21%	-6.73%	-7.69%	-5.64%	-6.30%	-12.86%	-8.78%	-3.63%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	7	7	12	14	10	7	7	8	8	4
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Not Yet
High	2039.0	1943.6	1920.2	1852.1	1848.4	1771.0	1764.3	1821.2	1857.0	1966.5	1975.2	2014.9
Low	1924.0	1837.0	1848.8	1721.0	1746.0	1650.5	1650.0	1647.7	1793.5	1846.1	1810.8	1813.4
Close/Last	1952.7	1884.1	1851.3	1804.5	1750.9	1698.2	1669.5	1775.1	1842.2	1945.3	1836.7	1969.0